No home team has won in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. That has to change at some point, right? Even if the hefty home favorites win tonight, my NBA player props will focus on the New York Knicks and the Denver Nuggets more than on the Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Consider that a reflection of their more lopsided rosters. While the Celtics and the Thunder are deep and rely on rotations, we can all trust who will or will not show up for the Knicks and the Nuggets.
Continue below for my full NBA picks on Wednesday, May 7.
Best NBA player props today
Jokic u1.5 threes (-105)
Hart 2+ threes (+230)- Brunson o2.5 threes (-105)
NBA player props for May 7
Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 threes (-105 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic thrives inside against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Chet Holmgren is stronger than he looks, but he is neither strong nor experienced enough to withstand Jokic’s strength. And Isaiah Hartenstein is simply not a good enough defender.
Jokic averaged 24.5 points and 15.8 rebounds against the Thunder this season, hitting 52.6% of his shots. And that was before his massive 42 points and 22 rebounds on 51.7% shooting in that Game 1 shocker on Monday night.
Jokic went 2 of 6 from deep in that masterpiece, a high-water mark for him against the Thunder. He hit a pair of threes in only one of four games against Oklahoma City this regular season, shooting 27.8% from beyond the arc on 4.5 attempts per game.
The most notable fact is that Jokic attempted 10 threes in the game when he hit a pair, and otherwise he took just eight total 3-pointers across three games. He would rather thrive inside than chuck from deep.
Do not doubt Jokic to produce tonight. Doubt him to spend much time beyond the arc.
Josh Hart 2+ threes (+230 at bet365)
Is Josh Hart a good shooter? Well, he is better than most of us, but no, he is not a good shooter. He hit 33.3% of his 3-pointers this season, taking 3.3 per game.
But the Boston Celtics encourage shooters. Opponents pulled up from deep on 43.4% of their shots after the All-Star Break, the 10th-highest rate in the NBA.
It works for Boston, as opponents hit only 34.3% of those threes, the third-lowest mark in the NBA.
Hart went 1 of 5 from deep in Game 1. It is thus logical to see his Over/Under at 0.5 with the Over juiced to -210.
But asking Hart to make one more 3-pointer while enjoying a payout of +230 is too rich of value to ignore. He is going to shoot. If Boston was going to close out on him, that would deter this bet. But the Celtics want the New York Knicks guard to shoot.
If he takes five 3-pointers again, he is statistically most likely to make two of them. But it will not be a surprise if Hart takes even more treys. It is Boston’s defensive design.
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes (-105 at bet365)
Again, the Celtics are going to encourage shooting, even from Jalen Brunson. They will risk him going 5 of 9 from deep again, part of his 29 points in Game 1. They take that risk because they know their interior defense is so good.
Brunson went 4 of 14 inside the arc on Monday. The Celtics contest every shot at the rim.
Shots from deep may be a better path forward for Brunson in this series, yet this prop has not escalated accordingly.
He hit 2.3 threes per game this season, shooting 38.3%. Then he cleared this prop in three of six games against the Pistons, despite shooting just 33.3% from long range.
Brunson is never shy in bright lights. The chance to take a 2-0 series lead against the defending champions may be the brightest yet. Both he and Boston want to see those shots.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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