The NBA season tips off with an exhilarating doubleheader. It starts with the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder taking on Kevin Durant’s new squad, the Houston Rockets.
Then Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers play host to Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors. With this much star power, you know we’re going to have NBA player prop picks for opening night.
Here are my NBA picks for Tuesday, October 21.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Alperen Sengun |
Double-double | +150 |
 Al Horford |
Over 7.5 points | +100 |
| Brandin Podziemski |
Over 2.5 threes | +155 |
Prop #1: Alperen Sengun double-double
The champs might be a little distracted with the ring and banner raising ceremony, and dealing with a guy like the Houston Rockets' Alperen Sengun might not be at the front of mind.
Sengun is coming off an impressive breakout season, during which he averaged 16 points with a 53.2% effective field goal percentage, 8.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, earning his first career All-Star berth.
This year, he has the new wrinkle of playing next to future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant, which should take even more attention away from Sengun.
I also like this matchup for the Rockets' big man. While the Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best all-around basketball teams in recent years, they still aren’t the best rebounding bunch.
The Thunder finished last season ranked 19th in rebounding rate and 20th in opponent rebounds per game.
Sengun has a rebounding prop sitting at 8.5, but instead of taking the Over, which is juiced at -110, I’m going to back him to get a double-double at a much nicer +150.
Sengun recorded 45 double-doubles in 76 games played last season, including two in four matchups against the Thunder last season.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC, Peacock
Prop #2: Al Horford Over 7.5 points
One of my favorite moves of the offseason was the Golden State Warriors going out and adding Al Horford to the roster. He just feels like a dude who should be on this team. A savvy veteran who still competes and contributes, and I think he’s actually a bad matchup for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.
Even at his age-38 season, Horford was putting up solid numbers with the Celtics. He averaged 9.0 points, and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 36.6% from 3-point range.
Horford can use his 3-point shooting skills to take advantage of Lakers’ center Deandre Ayton, who sends most of his time in the paint. It could also mean, he forces the Lakers to go small, and he can use savvy old-guy moves to put in some work on the inside. And it’s not like L.A. was a great defensive team last season, ranking 17th in defensive rating.
I like Horford to prove he’s a good fit early with his new team, and take the Over 7.5 on his points prop which is sitting at even money.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC, Peacock
Prop #3: Brandin Podziemski Over 2.5 threes
The Los Angeles Lakers made some interesting moves to try to build this team around Luka Doncic and LeBron James. They brought in Deandre Ayton to help anchor them down low, and Marcus Smart to do his thing on the perimeter.
Smart’s task in this one is likely to be following Steph Curry around all game. And while Luka has looked great in offseason workouts and the preseason, that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly going to be a good defender.
And with LeBron James out for this matchup, Doncic’s focus will solely be on scoring. So, I want to target someone he could be guarding. That has me looking at Brandin Podziemski.
Podziemski followed up his All-Rookie campaign by averaging 11.7 points on a 53.7% effective field goal percentage. He also put up 4.8 threes per game, shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc. (A little down from his rookie season, so room to improve.)
Last season, the Lakers allowed opposing shooting guards to hit the 10th-highest rate when it came to shooting threes. And with Moses Moody out, there should be a few more shots up for grabs for the Warriors tonight.
So, I’m taking a shot at Podziemski to go Over his made threes prop, which is sitting at 2.5 at solid plus money.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC, Peacock
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