The San Antonio Spurs are desperate. Can their superstar turn that desperation into success against the New York Knicks in Game 3 of the NBA Finals? These Victor Wembanyama picks see the added day of rest as the biggest key before tip at 8:30 ET on Monday, June 8.
Victor Wembanyama prop pick for Game 3
Victor Wembanyama best bet: Over 11.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
The start of the Western Conference Finals were only 19 days before Game 2 of the NBA Finals, which is to say, Victor Wembanyama played nine high-stakes games in 19 days concluding Friday night. In a very real way, that clearly had the San Antonio Spurs’ superstar worn out.
One could reasonably wonder if his game-costing gaffe resulted from mental fatigue. His attempt at a game-winner falling short almost certainly was the result of physical fatigue. And all understandably so.
But the NBA slotted an extra day between Games 2 and 3 for precisely this reason. (It must be for this reason. A game in Sunday night primetime is about as ideal as it could have gotten for television ratings.)
Wemby may not be fully rested at this point, but that added day off combined with desperation should give him some renewed energy.
When fatigued, his rebounds have sagged a bit, both in the postseason and the regular season.
Wembanyama has cleared this modest rebounding prop only once in his last seven games after notching it in eight of his first 12 games these playoffs — and more genuinely, that would be eight of his first 10 games once discounting a concussion and an ejection.
In the regular season, Wembanyama averaged only 10.8 rebounds on the second night of back-to-backs, 11.4 rebounds when enjoying a day off and 12.75 when getting two days off.
This may not be an aggressive bet, it may be priced at a ho-hum -110, but given the chance to catch his breath, trusting Wembanyama on the glass in Game 3 is exceedingly logical.
Victor Wembanyama same-game parlay
While rest should help Victor Wembanyama crash the glass regardless of the venue — he averaged 11.75 rebounds at home this regular season compared to 11.25 on the road — neither he nor the Spurs should be trusted to shoot on the road.
Wembanyama has always been more reluctant to heave away from San Antonio, and with good reason. He shot 37.9% from deep at home this regular season, compared to 31.3% on the road, while taking 5.9 threes per game at home and just five per game on the road.
Those trends have held up in the last two rounds of this postseason.
Logic expects the Spurs’ role players to have similar struggles and/or reluctance, thus cutting into Wemby’s assists total.
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