This was not assigned as a 3-pointers props article, but that is what this look at the San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks organically became. There is a bounty of value beyond the arc in Game 3, though some of it comes from expecting the visitors to stay away from the long shots.
My Spurs vs. Knicks props and these NBA picks clearly expect New York to continue controlling this series with Game 3 tipping off at 8:30 ET on Monday, June 8.
Best Spurs vs Knicks props for Game 3
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Karl-Anthony Towns |
Over 1.5 3-pointers | +122 |
 Julian Champagnie |
Under 2.5 3-pointers | -135 |
| Victor Wembanyama |
Under 1.5 3-pointers | +145 |
Game 3 Prop #1: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 3-pointers
Do not make this bet simply because Karl-Anthony Towns went 3-for-5 from deep in Game 2. Do not make it simply because his five attempts are the threshold at which it becomes far more likely than not that the New York Knicks’ center will hit multiple 3-pointers. Do not even make it because Towns has hit 48.1% of his 3-pointers this postseason.
Rather, make it because Towns is returning to Madison Square Garden. He shoots far more often at home than he does on the road.
Towns took 4.4 threes per home game this season, compared to 3.8 per road game. That has held up this postseason, taking four per home game and 2.7 per road game.
Towns is shooting so well that the only question is related to quantity. He is clearly more comfortable loading up in New York City.
Game 3 Prop #2: Julian Champagnie Under 2.5 3-pointers
The usual logic here would be to doubt a role player in a road game, but Julian Champagnie actually shot better and more often on the road this season than he did at home. The difference in percentages, in particular, was rather negligible.
The logic here instead looks at Game 2 compared to Game 1. The San Antonio Spurs’ best shooter took 10 3-pointers in Game 1, going 5-for-10 as part of 16 points. But in Game 2, he pulled up from beyond the arc only five times, going 2-for-5 as part of eight points despite playing nearly five more minutes than in Game 1.
The Knicks defense adjusted to Champagnie, and that adjustment should hold as the NBA Finals move to the East Coast.
Game 3 Prop #3: Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 3-pointers
The inverse approach has yielded profit this postseason. Betting on Victor Wembanyama to find comfort beyond the arc at home has paid off. Because he clearly does not like shooting from deep on the road.
So, let’s take the chance to fade the French superstar.
The following trends have been true of all three years of Wembanyama’s young career. These are simply the most recent and therefore the most pertinent stats: He shot 37.9% from deep at home this regular season, compared to 31.3% on the road. He took 5.9 threes per game at home compared to just five per game on the road.
Look at the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama went 9-for-21 from deep at home, 42.9% on seven attempts per game. He went 7-for-19 in four games on the road, 36.8% on 4.75 attempts per game.
If Wembanyama is not going to attempt six 3-pointers, it becomes more likely than not that he will not hit multiple threes. To get such a reality at plus money is a foolish offering from the sportsbooks.
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