Tuesday, November 28 promises to be one of the most interesting dates in NBA regular season history, as the final day of the group stage of the In-Season Tournament sees 16 teams in action across eight games.
With so few results decided and so many compelling group stage finales on deck, I’ve gone through all the matchups and the NBA odds to land on my three favorite NBA player props for today’s tournament slate.
In my NBA picks, I’m backing a pair of star guards to do their thing to put their teams into the quarter-finals in De’Aaron Fox and Jalen Brunson and giving kudos to the defensive prowess of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Best NBA player props today
- Fox Over 27.5 pts (-115 at bet365)
- Brunson Over 25.5 pts (-113 at FanDuel)
- Alexander-Walker Over 1.5 steals+blocks (+140 at DraftKings)
Picks made on November 28 at 1:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for November 28
Prop bet #1: Outfoxed
The Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors played the best series of last season's playoffs, a seven-game thriller that simultaneously proved the dynastic Warriors aren’t finished and the Kings are legit. While Steph Curry came away the hero after his 50-point game closed it out, the tale might have been told quite differently if not for a cruel twist of fate.
De'Aaron Fox played like a superstar in that series until he broke his finger. While he gamely pushed through the discomfort, he understandably lost something from his handle that undermined his ability to score. Well, Fox is healthy and looking every bit the All-NBA guard he was last season and more.
Not only is Fox still a demon driving the ball, but he’s added volume pull-up 3-point shooting to his bag. He’s hitting 37.2% of his treys, but he’s taking more off the dribble than ever before and is splashing those shots. With perhaps the best first step in basketball, that shot makes Fox functionally unguardable by all but the best defenses.
The Warriors once counted themselves among that number, but their most-used lineups this season are getting blown off the court. Two of their three most frequent lineups have a defensive rating worse than 121 points per possession, which is a truly ghastly mark.
That includes the lineup with Draymond Green (who will make his return Tuesday) and Kevon Looney. Uneven play by everyone not named Steph and Chris Paul makes this Warriors team vulnerable to Fox’s aggressive playstyle.
Fox is averaging 29.9 points on the season and I see no reason for him to go below his average given the Dubs’ struggles.
De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 27.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Brunson eyes point differential
The New York Knicks have a chance to advance to the quarter-finals of the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday with their final game coming against the Charlotte Hornets, who will likely be without LaMelo Ball. The line in favor of the hometown Knicks is well into double digits, and in most instances, I would be wary of betting on a star player’s production because of the chance that they might not be needed to close out the fourth quarter.
But the In-Season Tournament rules change that equation. Now, the name of the game is point differential. Even if the Milwaukee Bucks win the group, the Knicks are in a strong position to advance if they can run up the score against Charlotte.
The man for the job figures to be Jalen Brunson, who — after a few tune-up games to begin the year — has returned to All-NBA form over his last few weeks. Brunson is averaging 29.6 points per game over his last five outings on 54% shooting from the field, 50% from three, and 84% from the line.
Jalen Brunson prop: Over 25.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Wolves say NAW
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the season’s elite defenses. While Rudy Gobert is the chief reason, Jaden McDaniels on the wing would be a close second. McDaniels, unfortunately, sprained his ankle against the New York Knicks last week, but the Wolves have a readymade replacement: Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
NAW isn’t quite up to the All-Defense standard that McDaniels sets, but he would be the best perimeter defender on a number of NBA teams. He showcased his ball-hawking ability countless times this summer for Team Canada during the FIBA World Cup and he’ll be going against FIBA teammate — and cousin — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.
It won’t be the first time that SGA and NAW square off either. The Wolves used Nickeil as the primary defender for much of the Play-In game showdown between these teams last year, and NAW more than held his own. His minutes and production have soared with McDaniels out, and at home, he’s averaging 0.9 steals and one block per game on the season.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker prop: Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+140 at DraftKings)
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