A new week of NBA action tips off tonight with eight games on the schedule. That means there is plenty of basketball betting value to be found in NBA player props markets.
I’ve got my eyes locked in on the NBA odds for LaMelo Ball coming back down to Earth when he and the Charlotte Hornets take on the Boston Celtics. Which Milwaukee Bucks player will be the latest to abuse the Washington Wizards on the boards? And can Kawhi Leonard keep cooking against the San Antonio Spurs?
Here are my best NBA picks for tonight’s player props on Monday, November 20.
Best NBA player props today
- Ball Under 26.5 pts (-120 at FanDuel)
- Lopez Over 5.5 rebs (-114 at FanDuel)
- Leonard Over 2.5 threes (+122 at FanDuel)
Picks made on November 20 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for November 20
Prop bet #1: Ball don't lie
The Charlotte Hornets, once again, do not look like a very good basketball team. And LaMelo Ball’s answer to that seems to be to just jack up as many shots as possible. And while Ball’s point totals are going up, that hasn’t stopped the losses from piling up as well.
Since Ball started increasing his shot output against the Dallas Mavericks back on Nov. 5, the Hornets are just 1-7 straight up. And things will get a whole lot tougher on Monday night when the Boston Celtics come to town.
Now, Ball is averaging 31.4 points on 22.9 field-goal attempts starting with that game against the Mavs, but the Hornets haven’t really faced a team with a perimeter defense like the Celtics have.
Led by Jrue Holliday and Derrick White, the Celtics lead the NBA in defensive rating, rank third in opponent effective field goal percentage, and seventh in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. They also rank first in field-goal percentage allowed to opposing guards.
I know Ball has been going off recently, but this is a bad matchup for Buzz City’s point guard. I’m betting the Celtics come at Ball in ways he hasn’t seen this year and hold him below his point total which is sitting at 26.5.
LaMelo Ball prop: Under 26.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Brook on the boards
The Bucks center is averaging 4.6 rebounds per game this season. Now, a lot of that has to do with how Lopez has changed his game. He is working much more on the perimeter on offense, and his main focus on defense is rim protection, leaving Giannis Antetokounmpo to clean up the boards.
But in this matchup against the Wiz, Lopez’s rebounding prop is sitting at 5.5, which is a touch too low.
For starters, Washington is a bad team that takes a lot of shots (11th in field-goal attempts per game), which means plenty of rebounds are up for grabs. But the Wizards don’t tend to compete for those boards, ranking dead last in both rebounding rate and opponent rebounds per game.
On top of that, Lopez has been putting in a little more work on the glass of late. The Bucks’ big has snatched six or more rebounds in four of his last eight games and in two of his last three overall. With this juicy matchup against the Wiz, I’m betting he does it again.
And if you want to get really adventurous, take a look at Lopez to record a double-double, which is on the board at +800.
Brook Lopez prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Kawhi from downtown!
The Los Angeles Clippers finally got their first win of the James Harden era. But some of that has to do with the fact that Kawhi Leonard had himself a game, and I’m betting he keeps that going in Monday night’s matchup against his former team the San Antonio Spurs.
Leonard is coming off an 8-for-16 shooting performance, which included him going 3-for-6 from 3-point range. Now, Leonard has always been an excellent shooter from beyond the arc, but he looks like he is taking it to the next level.
The two-time Finals MVP is hitting an impressive 43.1% of his 5.9 attempts per game from long range this season and he gets to go up against a Spurs team that has really struggled with its perimeter defense.
Well, to be fair, the Spurs are struggling at the defensive end in general, ranking next-to-last in defensive rating and opponents are really taking advantage of them on the outside. San Antonio allows the sixth most 3-point attempts per game, letting opposing players hit 40% of those attempts, which ranks 29th in the NBA.
Leonard should get plenty of open looks. He’s hit three or more threes in five of his 11 games played, including going 3-for-7 from deep when these teams last met on Oct. 29. At plus money, Kawhi is a great bet to do it once again.
Kawhi Leonard prop: Over 2.5 made threes (+122 at FanDuel)
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