After a wild weekend of wagering, tonight brings us two big battles of NBA playoff action.
The Boston Celtics fight to pull even with the New York Knicks while the Minnesota Timberwolves try to put the Golden State Warriors on the ropes.
I focus on player performance for this pair of Game 4s and give my best NBA player props for Monday, May 12.
Best NBA player props today
Towns o1.5 threes (+180) - Bridges o13.5 points (-120)
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Reid o6.5 assist+rebounds (-115)
NBA player props for May 12
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 threes (+180 at bet365)
Through three games with the Boston Celtics, versatile New York Knicks big man Karl-Anthony Towns has one 3-pointer off seven shots from beyond the arc.
He went 0-for-1 in each of the first two games and finished 1-for-5 from deep in Game 3, pumping up the payout on his Over 1.5 triples to +180 in Game 4.
His most recent action from outside is more indicative of this usual activity from 3-point range, after the 7-footer averaged two triples on 4.7 attempts in the regular season and put up two or more makes from the perimeter in three of the four games with Detroit in Round 1 (averaged 2.0 on 4.2 3PA).
Towns’ recent 3-point drought and a hand injury suffered in Game 3 (which he’s downplayed) have swung this market, which was around Over 1.5 at -135 to start the playoffs. Game 4 player projections are flirting with two 3-pointers from KAT, with models ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 long-range bombs.
Game script also gives Towns the green light, especially after what we witnessed in Game 3. Boston is a 6-point road favorite and should the Celtics bury New York under a sea of triples, KAT will be more inclined to take — and make — from outside.
Mikal Bridges Over 13.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Meanwhile, Mikal Bridges has posted efforts of eight, 12, and 14 points — falling well short of his season scoring average of 17.6 and his efforts against Detroit in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Bridges scored 12 points on 6-for-10 shooting in Game 3’s blowout loss, scoring eight of those points in the second half once the game was well out of reach. After Game 3, Bridges preached about starting Game 4 more urgently and aggressively.
Madison Square Garden is the place to be if we’re betting on a strong start from Bridges, who has been a homebody all year. He averaged 19.6 points on 52% shooting in MSG, compared to just 15.6 points and 48% shooting on the road.
His slow start to this series has trimmed his scoring prop, which was bouncing between 15.5 and 16.5 O/U versus the Pistons and sat at 15.5 O/U for Game 3 in New York. The current total of 13.5 O/U is offering solid value with player models expecting more from Bridges tonight.
Game models range from 16.2 to 17.7 for the Knicks' small forward. My number comes out to 17 points, which should have the Over 13.5 listed around -220 rather than asking -120 at bet365 for our NBA picks. Some sharp books are dealing the same result as high as -131.
Naz Reid Over 6.5 assists + rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Naz Reid is the Minnesota Timberwolves glue guy off the bench and while his scoring output hasn’t been as hefty the past two games with the Golden State Warriors, the 6-foot-9 workhorse is impacting the outcome in other ways.
Reid grabbed three boards and dished out five assists in Game 2’s one-sided win and finished with three rebounds and two dimes in Game 3. He’s trying to turn up the intensity for tonight, knowing the importance of stealing these games in San Francisco.
"There’s no sigh of relief at any point," Reid told the media after Game 3’s road win. "This is a playoff series for a reason. Whether you’re up or down, you still got to go take care of business"
Game 4 forecasts expect Reid to rise to the occasion in more than one way. His rebounding projections range from 5.5 to 6.8 while his assist models sit between 1.7 and 2.2 dimes. My numbers boil down to six boards and 2.2 assists, putting Reid past his combo prop of 6.5 O/U.
For the series, Reid’s advanced metrics show an average of 2.7 potential assists and 8.0 rebounding chances. He averaged 6.0 boards and 2.3 assists in the regular reason.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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