Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Thompson Misfires, Morant Regresses

We've got two games on the NBA betting board this Saturday with the Bucks hosting the Celtics in the afternoon and the Grizzlies taking on the Warriors at night. 

Today we're backing Grayson Allen to bounce back from an invisible performance while fading Ja Morant and Klay Thompson on some Over/Under numbers that look a tad too high.

Here are our best free NBA player prop picks for May 7.

NBA player props for May 7

• Allen Over 1.5 threes (-165)
• Morant Under 8.5 rebs (-140)
• Thompson Under 21.5 pts (-105)

Picks made on 5/7/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Gray's Anatomy

Boston clobbered Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and the main reason for that was three-point shooting, with the Celtics hitting at a sizzling 20-43 clip from long range (46.5%) while the Bucks went just 3-18 (16.5%).

The Bucks were a Top-5 team in three-pointers made (14.1 per game) and three-point percentage (36.6%) during the regular season. Even considering that they are playing against an elite defensive team and don't have Khris Middleton, they should be much better from deep than they were on Tuesday. 

Getting Grayson Allen more shots from beyond the arc should be a priority. Since Middleton went down with his knee injury in Round 1, Allen stepped up and helped carry the scoring burden. Allen attempted at least six three-pointers and drained at least three in four straight games prior to Tuesday's contest but took just one attempt from long range in that game. 

He still logged 28 minutes in that contest, and considering that he averaged 2.4 threes per game during the regular season at a 40.9% clip, he looks like a good bet to hit multiple threes today. 

Pick: Grayson Allen Over 1.5 threes made (-165)

Board stiff

Ja Morant has been absolutely incredible for the Grizzlies, and he isn't just filling up the hoop. Sure dropping 34 and 47 points on the Warriors in consecutive games is very impressive, but he's also averaging 8.6 rebounds and 10.1 assists per game during the playoffs. 

However, that level of production simply isn't sustainable, especially against a very good defensive team in the Dubs. While we don't want to fade him on his points total (set at 28.5) since his high shot volume and the absence of Dillon Brooks should once again put the scoring burden squarely on his shoulders, we are looking at the Under on his rebounds. 

The O/U on his rebounds total is set at 7.5 or 8.5 depending on the book, and Morant averaged a far more modest 5.7 rebounds per game during the regular season. Center Steven Adams is also expected to return to the Grizz lineup today and that could cut into Morant's rebounding numbers as well. 

Pick: Ja Morant Under 8.5 rebounds (-140)

Klay strays

Warriors shooting guard Klay Thompson was locked in towards the end of the regular season and looked like he had gotten his stroke back after more than two years away from the game due to both ACL and Achilles injuries. However, Thompson has gone ice-cold lately, averaging just 14 ppg on 31.4% shooting in his last three games. 

While Thompson is bound to snap out of that funk eventually, his points total of 21.5 still looks a tad too high today. Keep in mind that even if Thompson had drained an extra pair of three-pointers in each of the last three games, he would have still gone below that number.

Take the Under on Thompson's points total tonight.

Pick: Klay Thompson Under 21.5 points (-105)

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