Celtics vs Bucks Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Stealing Home Court Back

As impressive as Milwaukee’s win in Game 1 was, Boston’s rout in Game 2 snuffed that momentum.

Yes, the Bucks stole home court from the Celtics in the series opener, but getting run off the court by 23 points just two days later resonates even louder. Milwaukee needs to somehow learn from that blunder if it wants to hold onto its newfound home-court advantage.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Celtics at the Bucks on May 7.

Celtics vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After that Game 2 laugher, Milwaukee still opened as 3-point favorites late Tuesday night, with the effect of the Deer District clear. On Thursday, some books dropped that to -2.5, but otherwise, line movement was slow to show up until early Friday when this quickly fell to -2.0 or -1.5, depending on the book.

The total opened at the same time at 214.0 before falling to 213.0 on Wednesday or Thursday, depending on the book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Celtics +2.5 (-108)
• Prediction: Under 213.0 (-108)
• Best bet: Celtics money line +115

Predictions made on 5/06/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Saturday, May 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Celtics vs Bucks series odds

Celtics: -125
Bucks: +105

Celtics vs Bucks betting preview

Key injuries

Celtics: Marcus Smart PG (Probable).
Bucks: Khris Middleton SF (Out), George Hill PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, including two outright wins as a road dog to clinch their first-round series win in Brooklyn and an ATS win in early April on a trip in Milwaukee. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bucks.

Celtics vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Milwaukee needed just about everything to go right to win Game 1. Yes, it was a 22-point victory, but the number of ways in which Boston played as badly as it had all season emphasizes that the Bucks’ recipe should not be replicable.

The Celtics committed 18 or more turnovers just nine times this year, losing six of those games. Five of those games came before Boston seemingly flipped the switch on New Year’s Day to become a title contender.

It gave up 18 in Game 1.

The Celtics shot 39.0 percent from the field or worse eight times this season, losing all eight. Again, an emphasis shows up before the calendar flipped, with six of those defeats coming before Jan. 1. They shot a season-low 33.3 percent in Game 1.

Boston took more than 50 threes only once this season, in a loss to New York in October. It had 10 more games with more than 45 attempts from deep, going 5-5. Losing six of those before New Year’s Day may not seem irregular, but realize only 36 of the Celtics’ 82 regular-season games came in 2021.

Add in six playoff games, and only 40.9 percent of Boston’s games were in 2021, yet 60 percent of their losses in 3-point heavy showings came then. When including Game 1’s 36 percent on 18-of-50, that falls to 54.5 percent.

The Celtics were woeful in Game 1. Some credit assuredly goes to Milwaukee’s defense, but for the most part, Boston just collapsed. Jaylen Brown, in particular, was terrible, with 12 points on 4-of-13 shooting and seven turnovers. He keyed the Celtics’ rise in Game 2, scoring 25 first-half points.

Boston’s 46.5 percent from deep, on 20-of-43 shooting, stole the headlines, but its 11 turnovers were just as notable, along with shooting 47.5 percent from the field. Those fit in line with a team that shot 46.6 percent from the field this season while committing 13.6 turnovers per game.

That torrid success from deep may not be sustainable, but everything else the Celtics enjoyed in Game 2 was.

Prediction: Celtics +2.5 (-108 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

The fact that Boston could shoot better than 46 percent from deep in Game 2 and the total still didn't reach 200 points underscores how much of a defensive slog this series will be.

The total has fallen with each game thus far, from 218.5 in Game 1 to 215.5 in Game 2, but this 213.0 has not fallen far enough yet. Game 2 saw 195 points scored. Asking for a 10 percent bump boggles comprehension, especially when remembering the Celtics’ burned the nets up on Tuesday.

Sure, Milwaukee went 3-of-18 from deep that night, but the logical result of that is the Bucks regress to making the threes that Boston will now start missing. That would then be a wash in terms of points scored.

Where 19 more points will come from is anyone’s guess. Rather than guess, let’s lean into the Under.

Prediction: Under 213.0 (-108 at WynnBet)

Best bet

If Jaylen Brown was the embodiment of Boston’s failures in Game 1, then his early outburst in Game 2 showed there should be no long-term worries. Furthermore, his poor debut in this series could be logically traced to his fasting throughout Ramadan.

Brown would never cite that logic, as it would go against many of the principles of Ramadan, but playing a Sunday afternoon game on the final day of a month when you could not eat or even drink water during daylight may be the worst-case scenario for a basketball player. Brown looked fatigued as he missed shot after shot, as he lost the ball over and over again.

Then Monday was Eid, the end of Ramadan, a chance for Brown to celebrate and feast. You saw what happened Tuesday. This may be over-simplifying the series, but when the clearest difference between two routs is one player and that individual is known to have been sacrificing for a month that ends the day between the games, Occam’s razor insists we not ignore that obvious factor.

Pick: Celtics moneyline (+115 at WynnBet)

Pages related to this topic