Best NBA Player Props Today: Green Continues to Create for Houston

Sportsbooks have yet to adjust to Jalen Green's assists prop, and the Houston Rockets guard should thrive as the driving force against the Utah Jazz tonight. Read more in Jon Metler's daily NBA player props.

Mar 29, 2024 • 11:59 ET • 4 min read
Jalen Green Houston Rockets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Step aside, March Madness; we have 12 NBA games on the slate and plenty of NBA odds to dig through to find the best NBA player props for Friday's games.

Jalen Green has been on an absolute tear for the Houston Rockets in March, averaging 28.5 points per game. The Rockets have won 10 straight games as they continue to close in on the Golden State Warriors for the final Play-In spot in the Western Conference.

With Green running hot and the Rockets rolling, find out which prop I'm backing for him along with my other free NBA picks for March 29.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on March 29 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for March 29

Prop bet #1: Green light

I honestly don't think I've ever placed a bet faster than when I saw this opening number on Jalen Green for his game on Friday against the Utah Jazz. After what I saw against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, there's just no way Green should be opening at 3.5 (+120) on his assists prop.

Against the Thunder on Wednesday, I bet on Green Over 3.5 (+140), and he just barely got there with four assists in regulation. Although he finished with seven dimes once the game concluded OT, the sportsbooks still didn't make the proper adjustment here, so we can run this back.

Green is on the ball for the Houston Rockets a lot running the offense and creating plays for his teammates. If you watched the film, he set up Amen Thompson several times at the rim for a layup, and he just missed the shot. The potential assists back this up as well, as he had 18 against the Thunder. Let me repeat that, 18! 

And we're going to trade Green at 3.5 (+120)? No chance. His role in the Rockets offense is evolving, and the sportsbooks aren't keeping up.

The best part about running this bet back as well is that he is playing against the Utah Jazz. We have already recently been attacking assists props for guards against the Jazz, so you really couldn't draw up a better 'run this bet back' spot for Green here.

Green is projected to have 4.2 assists on Friday against the Jazz, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -143, but it is available at DraftKings at +120. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 29%.

Jalen Green prop: Over 3.5 assists (+120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Racking up Miles

What a month Miles McBride is having for the New York Knicks! It originally started with McBride playing 40+ minutes when Jalen Brunson suffered an injury, but now we are seeing McBride play 40+ minutes a night alongside Brunson. Welcome to the Tom Thibodeau experience; once he trusts you, he trusts you, and your minutes skyrocket.

McBride is averaging 44.3 minutes per game over his last five games, which is an insane number, but this is how Thibodeau operates. In those five games, McBride is shooting 48.9% from deep on 9.4 attempts per game. As long as he keeps shooting like that, the minutes will be there for McBride, and it's why I'm going after his assists prop.

Thibodeau will be looking for as much floor spacing as he can get against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, which should keep the minutes of McBride and Donte DiVincenzo elevated. The 3-point shooting of the Knicks will be a major factor in how they attack the Spurs with Wembanyama patrolling the paint.

We've only seen McBride go Over the total of 3.5 assists twice in his last five games, but he is averaging 6.6 potential assists per game in this stretch. In his last time out, McBride had 11 potential assists against the Toronto Raptors, which is a massive number for someone trading at 3.5 (+122).

McBride is projected to have 3.8 assists on Friday against the Spurs, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -111, but it is available at FanDuel at +122.

Miles McBride prop: Over 3.5 assists (+122 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: White chocolate

McBride and Donte DiVincenzo are working off each other to facilitate assists, and their price points are at a number where we can capitalize on both players.

I mentioned McBride's impressive shooting stats — 48.9% from deep on 9.4 attempts per game over his last five games. Well, DiVincenzo is shooting 44.3% from beyond the arc on 12.2 attempts per game in the same stretch.

Jalen Brunson runs the offense; everything starts with Brunson, that's not debatable. However, what you're witnessing is either DiVincenzo or McBride being one pass away from Brunson, creating space for him. When Brunson hits them with a pass, they both make an extra pass to the corner for a wide-open three. DiVincenzo is collecting assists on McBride's hot shooting, and McBride is getting assists on DiVincenzo's hot shooting, depending on who receives the first pass and becomes the corner shooter.

With both players lighting it up from beyond the arc, we're also seeing aggressive closeouts from the defense trying to run them off the 3-point line. This creates opportunities for DiVincenzo and McBride to drive the lane against a defense that is out of position. It opens up potential assists to players like Isaiah Hartenstein on the dump-off, and they now have Mitchell Robinson in the dunker's spot.

DiVincenzo is projected to have 3.6 assists on Friday against the Spurs, allowing us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -222, but it is available at bet365 at -105. This bet is showing a massive edge and should catch some steam throughout the day.

Donte DiVincenzo prop: Over 2.5 assists (-105 at bet365)

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