We only have four games on the NBA slate on Tuesday, but all of these games offer very intriguing matchups and huge implications for the NBA playoff seeding. Find out who we're backing in these matchups as we dig through the NBA odds to find you the best NBA player prop bets for Tuesday.
I'm not going to lie, I thought we had an assists prop sweep on Monday once Kristaps Porzingis dropped his second dime, and Darius Garland had already gone Over the total. It was all on Kyrie Irving to go Over the number of 5.5, and he had 5 at halftime and then finished the game with 5.
Let's get the sweep on Tuesday, as we have some interesting names on our betting card! Find out who I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Tuesday, March 26.
Best NBA player props today
- Rui Hachimura Over 1.5 assists (+180 at bet365)
- Herbert Jones Over 2.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
- Stephen Curry Over 4.5 assists (+114 at BetRivers)
Picks made on March 26 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for March 26
Prop bet #1: Opportunity knocks
I can almost guarantee that nobody woke up on Tuesday morning anticipating betting on a Rui Hachimura assists prop, but here we are. This was a prop I was eyeing early in the morning for Hachimura but ultimately decided to pass on until we got some injury news, then there was no hesitation on my end, and I hit the button.
The injury news I'm referring to is that LeBron James has been ruled out for the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday against the Milwaukee Bucks. This is a massive game-changer for Hachimura's assists prop because I liked the edge on the numbers I saw earlier this morning, but it's just hard to think the minutes for Hachimura are a guarantee.
With James out and the Lakers taking on the Bucks, I would be stunned if we didn't see 30+ minutes for Hachimura now on Tuesday. The Lakers just took on the Bucks on March 8 without James, and Hachimura played 38 minutes and took 16 field goal attempts. So not only are the minutes more secure in the projection, but the usage for Hachimura should also be higher, and you can only get assists if you're touching the ball on offense.
It's also important to point out that Hachimura was trading at 1.5 (+180) before James was officially ruled out. So it's not like we're getting a worse number because we know James is out; we're getting the exact same number, and it's why we need to hit the button.
Hachimura is projected to have 1.5 assists on Tuesday against the Bucks, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at +133, but it is available at bet365 at +180. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 20%.
Rui Hachimura prop: Over 1.5 assists (+180 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Jonesing for assists
If you watched our NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics this morning, one of the releases was on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 35.5 points and rebounds. When Adam Scherer was breaking down the Gilgeous-Alexander bet for us, you would've heard him reference the defense of Herbert Jones multiple times. This bet plays right into that narrative, but they are just two different angles.
With Gilgeous-Alexander on the other side of this matchup, the New Orleans Pelicans will need Jones, their best wing defender, to slow down Gilgeous-Alexander. What that means for Jones is there's a level of guarantee with his projected minutes, and it wouldn't be shocking at all if we see Jones get extended minutes on Tuesday because of his defensive assignment on Gilgeous-Alexander.
Not only should we be looking at heavy minutes for Jones, but the Pelicans are without Brandon Ingram, who injured his knee just two games ago. This is a huge loss for the Pelicans' offense, as not only could Ingram score, but he was also doing a lot more in terms of creating offense this season. In his only matchup against the Thunder this season, Ingram had 19 potential assists.
With Ingram out of the lineup, it will push a lot more Pelicans players onto the ball and open up more chances for other players to create offense. Jones isn't going to go out there and have 19 potential assists like Ingram, but there is more opportunity for Jones now in this offense, and with his assists prop trading at 2.5 (-115), I'm playing the Over.
Jones is projected to have 3.2 assists on Tuesday against the Thunder, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -152, but it is available at FanDuel at -113.
Herbert Jones prop: Over 2.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Steph the sous chef
This is the eighth straight game that Stephen Curry's assists prop will be trading at 4.5, and we have seen Curry go 4-4 to the Over on this number in those eight games. All four times Curry has gone Over this number recently, it has been with 5 assists, but this bet on Curry against the Miami Heat is very specific to the matchup, and the (+114) price point on the Over 4.5 assists is also a significant factor as well.
The Heat are a well-coached, disciplined defensive team, and it shows when they play against Curry. If the Golden State Warriors bring a ball screen to Curry, the Heat have shown us in the past that both defenders will stay with Curry until he gives up the ball. This will lead to more potential assists for Curry, as it has in the past as well.
In his one game against the Heat earlier this season, Curry had 11 potential assists. In his two games last year against the Heat, he averaged 19.5 potential assists per game, which is a massive number for Curry. While not necessarily relevant to Tuesday's game, it does help paint the picture of how the Heat guard Curry.
I also like Curry's assists prop on Tuesday against the Heat because Steve Kerr came under fire after the Warriors' last game against the Minnesota Timberwolves when Curry only played 30 minutes. Curry himself said he is ready to play more minutes to get the Warriors into the playoffs, so don't be surprised if we see elevated minutes for Curry on Tuesday.
Curry is projected to have 5 assists on Tuesday against the Heat, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -121, but it is available at BetRivers at +114.
Stephen Curry prop: Over 4.5 assists (+114 at BetRivers)
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