The Golden State Warriors have dropped two straight after building a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets. Houston dominated Game 5 and used a monster fourth-quarter run in Game 6 to even up the series and force a winner-take-all Game 7 at home.
My Warriors vs. Rockets predictions expect Steph Curry to give Houston all it can handle in his sixth career Game 7.
Read my NBA picks to see why I’m all in on Curry’s scoring prop as well as a points line I love for Fred VanVleet and a combo prop for Houston’s invaluable veteran big man.
Who will win Warriors vs Rockets Game 7?
I’m admittedly torn here. Golden State’s flop in Game 5 was understandable with the understanding that they would come out hot in Game 6 and close this one out on the road. Instead, the Warriors shockingly melted down in the fourth quarter, and Steve Kerr had no answers for Ime Udoka’s double-big lineup of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams.
I’m picking the Warriors because they have the two best players in the series on their side. A Herculean performance may be needed from Curry to counter Houston’s clear advantages in size, speed and athleticism, but we’ve seen him come to the rescue on more than one occasion.
Warriors vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Stephen Curry Over 30 points (+150 at bet365)
I was all over Stephen Curry’s points prop at 25.5 on Friday, and after he scored 29, the line has moved by only a point. There’s no way I’m not going back to the well on this one. I was tempted to take Curry’s scoring line at 26.5 for -120 odds here and play it safe, but I’m betting this one up by just a single three-pointer for +150 odds.
Curry totaled just 30 points across Games 4 and 5, so a bounce-back performance was imminent. His 29-point showing in Game 6 was his ninth game with at least 27 across his last 15. In that span, Curry has averaged 27.7 points.
On the season, Curry has gone for 27 or more 31 times, including 16 on the road, and he went for at least 30 points 24 times. He averaged 23.8 points at Chase Center and 25.6 at all other venues. Though Curry has hit for at least 27 consistently in recent games, he’s gone for at least 30 in five of his last 10.
Curry has appeared in five Game 7’s in his career, and he’s cooked when his team needed it the most. In those games, he’s averaged 32.6 points and scored 27 or more four times and at least 30 three times.
Curry’s worst Game 7 was his 17-point showing in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals in which the 73-9 Warriors lost in historic fashion to the Cleveland Cavaliers after going up 3-1. He surely won’t forget that performance heading into Sunday’s tilt with the Houston Rockets.
Curry has played three Game 7’s on the road and averaged a whopping 36.7 points. In his most recent Game 7, he dropped a monstrous 50 points at Sacramento to close out the 2023 first-round series against the Kings.
The NBA’s greatest shooter is no stranger to big moments, and he’s delivered consistently in Game 7’s throughout his career. With the Golden State Warriors role players struggling and Houston’s confidence at an all-time high, Curry will need to deliver a superhuman performance to silence the crowd at Toyota Center.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Stephen Curry 30 points
Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 points
Steven Adams Over 15.5 points and rebounds
Fred VanVleet has cooked across his last three games, averaging 26.7 points and six triples while shooting 59% from the floor and 66.7% from beyond the arc. He’s been electric from beyond the arc, but he’s excelled at the charity stripe, hitting 16 straight free throws in that span.
VanVleet has been Houston’s best offensive weapon over the last three games, and his team will need him to deliver another strong offensive performance in a pivotal Game 7. This line is set way too low considering his recent heater.
Steven Adams logged a season-high 31 minutes in Game 6 and finished with a season-high 17 points to go with five boards. Dillon Brooks got into some early foul trouble, and Houston rolled with its double-big lineup for most of the second half.
Playing Adams alongside Sengun gives Houston a massive size advantage, and after the success of Game 6, he may see more run in the final game of the series. Houston is +53 with Adams on the court through six games, so there is a real value in getting him on the court more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Rockets odds
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +3 (-110) | Houston -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Golden State +125 | Houston -150
- Over/Under: Over 202 (-110) | Under 202 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has covered in four of six games in this series, including three straight.
- The Warriors and Rockets hit the Over in three straight games.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
Golden State is 11-8 ATS as the road underdog this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Sunday, 5-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, Max |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
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