A new week of NBA action tips off with seven games on the board for hungry NBA bettors to dig into. There’s plenty of basketball betting value to be found in the player prop market.
D’Angelo Russell’s 3-point shooting will continue to be a problem for the Houston Rockets. Lauri Markkanen will shine on the boards in a game with a ton of rebounds surely up for grabs. And Domantas Sabonis faces a tough matchup against a physical Grizzlies team.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Monday, January 23.
NBA player props for January 23
Picks made on 1/23/2023 at 12:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Red-hot Russell
If getting the chance to select Victor Wembanyama in the next NBA draft was a race, the Houston Rockets would be winning. There are some good young pieces on Houston's roster. But at 10-36 for the season, it’s clear the club's focus isn’t on stopping other teams from scoring.
The Rockets rank 28th in defensive rating and 25th in scoring defense, and Houston's biggest problem lies on the perimeter. The Rockets easily allow the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA, and they rank 24th in opponents' 3-point shooting percentage. That means you can bet the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to let it fly from deep on Monday.
So, let’s do exactly that while taking T-wolves guard D’Angelo Russell to go Over his made 3-pointers prop.
Russell has really been finding his rhythm from beyond the arc recently. The Minnesota point guard is draining a crazy 52.9% from distance over his last eight games. And he's hit three-plus from long range three six times over that span.
That includes two games against the Rockets. He went 4-for-7 shooting from deep on Jan. 8, and 4-for-6 this past Saturday night.
There’s no reason to think the Rockets will suddenly start defending the perimeter better now. I’m backing Russell to stay hot from downtown, and the Over on his made 3-pointer prop hitting.
D'Angelo Russell Prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-120)
Markkanen bruising on the boards
The Charlotte Hornets are also in the thick of the Wembanyama race. It feels like the Hornets' rebuild has been stuck in honey for far too long, and they aren't freeing themselves anytime soon with a 13-34 record. Now they'll travel to Salt Lake City to take on an upstart Utah Jazz team.
The 24-25 Jazz sit in ninth place in the Western Conference after winning four of their last six games. They’ll be sizeable 8-point home chalk for this matchup, and one of Utah's most significant edges is on the glass.
Utah ranks ninth in the NBA in rebounding rate, while Charlotte is 22nd. There are also a ton of rebounds up for grabs in Hornets games since they take the second-most shots per game, with the slight downside of not being a very good shooting team. Charlotte ranks next-to-last in effective field-goal percentage.
That’s why I’m looking at Lauri Markkanen’s rebounding total. It’s set at 9.5, which may seem like a lot for a guy who averages 8.7 per game. But he’s been putting in extra work on the glass lately.
Markkanen has grabbed 11-plus boards in four straight contests. All four of those contests featured notable big men. I’m betting he makes it five straight due to the combination of his current form and an ideal matchup.
Lauri Markkanen prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-108)
Stymied Sabonis
The Memphis Grizzlies were the talk of the NBA over the weekend after Fox analyst Shannon Sharpe got into it with Ja Morant’s dad and Steven Adams during Saturday night’s game in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Anyone wanting to get on the wrong side of Adams isn’t thinking clearly.
The Grizzlies continue their West Coast road trip with a stop to face the Sacramento Kings. They’ll be looking to bounce back after dropping the first two games to the Lakers and Phoenix Suns.
The Kings are playing an exciting brand of basketball, with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis leading the way. Sabonis is averaging 18.8 points and 12.6 rebounds per game, but this matchup against the Grizz is a tough one for him.
The Grizzlies are a physical team that leads the NBA in defensive rating, and they're fourth in opponent's points in the paint. From Adams to Jaren Jackson Jr., they can throw a lot of bodies at Sabonis to bang with him down low. And they’ve been very good at containing him over three meetings in 2022-23.
The Grizz have held Sabonis to 11, 9, and 18 points in those clashes. He's also been limited to 19 points or fewer five times across his last six games. A point total of 19.5 seems too high for Sabonis in this matchup.
Domantas Sabonis Prop: Under 19.5 points (-113)
