Best NBA Player Props Today: No Muss, No Fuss, Plenty of Russ

Prop bet #1: Climbing Ivey

Jaden Ivey was in Monty Williams' doghouse when the NBA season started, but as we approached the NBA All-Star break, Ivey was given some opportunities to be the focal point of the offense, and he ran with it, including a 37-point outburst on the road against the Sacramento Kings. Not only was Ivey playing at a high level before the break, but there are some more layers to this bet because of the matchup with the Indiana Pacers.

If you watched the Rising Stars Challenge at All-Star Weekend, you would've seen a verbal altercation between Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin. Ivey was drafted fifth overall by the Detroit Pistons in 2022, and Mathurin was drafted sixth overall by the Pacers. Mathurin got up in Ivey's face, saying that even in a Rising Stars game, Ivey couldn't guard him, and Ivey did not back down.

There's a rivalry here between players who would've competed head-to-head in several pre-draft workouts because they were projected to be drafted in the same window of picks. Once I saw Ivey was playing against Mathurin and the Pacers right out of the break, I looked into the odds for both players, and I believe Ivey Over 3.5 assists (-115) at bet365 offers the biggest edge.

The fast-paced, up-tempo game, where the court is wide open, plays right into Ivey's playing style. The Pistons guard will constantly be able to get into the lane and create shots for his teammates against the Pacers. 

I'm not opposed to playing the Over on Ivey's points prop; I just didn't have any issues with the 17.5 points it is trading at. I felt there isn't much of a probability gap there to exploit, while there is with the assists prop.

Ivey is projected to have 4.3 assists, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 at -157, but it is available at bet365 at -115.

Jaden Ivey prop: Over 3.5 assists (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Get Carter

When it comes to betting on player props, projecting minutes is one of the biggest obstacles in the NBA, and with the Orlando Magic taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, we have a scenario where we could see elevated minutes for Wendell Carter Jr.

When betting on any of Carter's props, there's always a concern about which lineup Jamahl Mosley will use to close the game. This is never an issue with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but for the other three Magic starters — Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, and Carter — there's a chance one of them doesn't see the floor in the fourth quarter.

I don't think Carter's minutes will be the victim of Jonathan Isaac playing the entire fourth quarter tonight. The Cavaliers are big on the interior, and the Magic will need Carter's size against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. I think we will see Mosley use his big lineup of Banchero, Wagner, Isaac, and Carter together in the fourth quarter.

In a recent matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who pose a similar problem with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, Carter saw his biggest usage output of the season with 37 minutes.

With a total of 1.5 (+140) at bet365, we have a probability gap here with Carter's assists prop even if he only plays around his usual 28 minutes, which is why I'm attacking this prop. I just think there's an opportunity here because of the matchup that this bet catches a boost, and we see Carter play more than the 28 minutes that he is projected, which would only increase our edge.

Carter is projected to drop 1.7 dimes against the Cavaliers, which isn't quite the two assists we need, but the +140 price point is the key to this wager. Based on this projection, we can price Carter at +106 to go over the total of 1.5 assists.

Wendell Carter Jr. prop: Over 1.5 assists (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Vintage Westbrook

Well, this spot in the article originally belonged to Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points, but since LeBron James decided to play in the NBA All-Star game and then sit out Monday's game against the Golden State Warriors, Davis is no longer trading anywhere near the total of 24.5 I originally gave out, so I'm replacing him and adding a bonus bet here. If you follow me on X, congrats to everyone who snagged the Over 24.5 points. I'll gladly take the line movement in my favor even if it results in having to do an additional write-up.

The bonus bet is Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 assists against the Oklahoma City Thunder. This game will also be played in Oklahoma City, so you should expect to see maximum effort from Westbrook coming out of the All-Star break.

To be fair, this isn't the only reason we are backing this bet, but it's always nice to find a probability gap in the odds and then also have a narrative behind the bet that could provide it with an additional boost.

The Los Angeles Clippers are on the front end of a back-to-back tonight, as they will take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday. Being fresh off the All-Star break with two superstars whom the Clippers are already extra careful with — Paul George and Kawhi Leonard — screams potential elevated minutes for some bench players. If you're Ty Lue, why would you not make that Westbrook tonight, especially with him playing against his old team?

Westbrook is projected to have 4.4 assists on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -166, but it is available at -122 at FanDuel. This projection is based on Westbrook playing his usual allotment of minutes, but I do think you could see elevated usage because of the opponent and where we are in the schedule.

Russell Westbrook prop: Over 3.5 assists (-122 at FanDuel)