Best NBA Player Props Today: Ayton in Helper Mode

Prop bet #1: Assists from Ayton

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers just played on Tuesday in Portland, so this will be a rematch with no travel involved, as they will play in Oregon again tonight. In their game on Tuesday, Deandre Ayton scored 22 points on 11 of 12 shooting, and I was surprised at how much space Rudy Gobert was giving him in the midrange. 

Ayton loves to pop that elbow jumper, and I think you will see Gobert pinch up on Ayton in the rematch and try to take that away. This could lead to Ayton looking for cutters from the elbow instead of popping the jump shot with Gobert so far back.

The Trail Blazers also need to free Anfernee Simons from Jaden McDaniels if they are going to have any chance of beating the Timberwolves, and they can do that by running some dribble handoffs between Ayton and Simons. 

They did it a couple of times on Tuesday, and I would be shocked if they didn't run this action more in the rematch. The dribble handoff would allow Simons to get his jump shot off against Gobert in drop coverage or get him going downhill with a head of steam and blow past Gobert, and on the flip to Simons, Ayton would be credited with the assists.

Ayton is projected to have 1.8 assists on Thursday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -112, but it is trading at Caesars at +118. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 15%.

Deandre Ayton prop: Over 1.5 assists (+118 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Loving Lopez

Brook Lopez missed some games at the beginning of February and hasn't played more than 29 minutes since he returned to the lineup four games ago. On the surface, it looks like his role might be diminished under Doc Rivers, but in reality, his minutes are down because the last four Milwaukee Bucks games have all been blowouts, which has resulted in reduced playing time.

The reduced minutes in his last four games and Lopez going Under his points total in these games are details we can use to our advantage. The sportsbooks have dropped Lopez's points prop from 14.5 to 11.5, and it has created a probability gap we can exploit.

The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton, and they will need a third scorer in this matchup. I say this because the Memphis Grizzlies have defensive counters to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Vince Williams Jr.

Lopez will find himself involved in the offense in one of two ways. Jackson will either be his primary defender and every time he helps on Antetokounmpo, it will result in a dump-off or open three for Lopez. If Jackson is the primary defender on Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should be looking to feed Lopez in the post to take advantage of a size mismatch. Either way, I expect Lopez to be heavily involved in the offense because of the defense of Jackson.

Lopez is projected to score 13.1 points, which means we can price the Over 11.5 at -140, but it is available at Caesars at -103.

Brook Lopez prop: Over 11.5 points (-103 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Dimes for Dame

I've felt like Lillard has had a probability gap in the pricing for his assists prop in the last two games, and unfortunately for his backers, you weren't rewarded in either.

Against the Denver Nuggets, Lillard had five dimes in the first half despite battling foul trouble or horrific officiating, depending on how you want to look at it. Unfortunately, Lillard never picked up the two assists you needed to cash the Over in the second half because the game was a blowout, and he only played 22 minutes.

In the next game against the Miami Heat, Lillard once again stayed Under the total of 6.5 when he only had five dimes, but that was on 14 potential assists. What I'm trying to say is, there's something here with the pricing on Lillard's prop, and in a matchup against the Grizzlies and a +115 price point available for the Over at bet365, sign me up.

The players who surround Antetokounmpo, Lillard, and Middleton in Milwaukee rely on these three to create offense for them and are doing so even more than before under Rivers. With Middleton out against the Grizzlies, the Bucks will be leaning even more heavily on Dame and Giannis.

What I like about Lillard's assists prop tonight is the Grizzlies have two players who will force Lillard into creating instead of scoring. Williams is an excellent defender with a seven-foot wingspan who should guard Lillard. This will force Lillard into finding open shooters rather than calling his own number on his jump shot.

Then you also have Jackson patrolling the paint. His shot-blocking and rim protection will force Lillard into looking for shooters once he is in the lane or for one of his bigs in the dunker spot when Jackson plays help defense.

Lillard is projected to have 7.0 assists, which allows us to price the Over 6.5 assists at -122, but it is available at bet365 at +115.

Damian Lillard prop: Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)