The New Orleans Pelicans are slumping towards a high draft pick they don’t own, and their road struggles spell trouble in tonight’s visit to the Miami Heat.
New Orleans is 2-12 on its travels, and my Pelicans vs. Heat predictions expect Miami to bounce back in style here after its four-game win streak was snapped yesterday.
Read on for my NBA picks ahead of a January 4 clash that could get out of hand in a hurry.
Pelicans vs Heat prediction
Pelicans vs Heat best bet: Heat -8 (-110)
Sometimes, a team just has your number — and this is a perfect example. The Miami Heat are 9-1 in their last 10 matchups against the New Orleans Pelicans, and they’re 8-2 ATS in those contests.
This banged-up New Orleans roster isn’t likely to reverse that trend tonight, with an injury report that would represent a decent starting five. Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray, and Saddiq Bey are all out, while Trey Murphy III and Derik Queen are questionable.
In contrast to Miami’s recent uptick in form, the Pels have dropped six in a row, with four of those losses coming by a margin of 9+ points. So I’ll gladly lay the points in this spot and trust that the Heat’s relentless effort will gradually wear down the visitors.
Sure, it’s a quick turnaround for Erik Spoelstra’s squad after yesterday’s loss to the Timberwolves, but the hosts have impressive bench depth, an assortment of 3-point sharpshooters and an edge on the boards.
Zion Williamson scored 35 points for the Pelicans on Friday, and they still lost by double-digits to the Trail Blazers. They won’t get any mercy here from a hungry Miami team that thumped New Orleans 153-104 back in April.
Pelicans vs Heat same-game parlay
With Miami’s balanced offense, Bam Adebayo doesn’t have to force things at that end of the floor. He’s only averaged 12.4 PPG in his last seven contests and hasn’t gone past this number since December 15.
I’ll fade his points prop tonight, with Bam making more of an impact as a screen-setter and connector.
Amid all the losses, Zion is putting up big numbers for New Orleans, and I’m targeting his rebounds tally as the visitors try to contain Adebayo and Kel’el Ware on the glass.
He’s nailed this Over in five of his last eight games, and he could see a chunk of minutes at center here if Queen is ruled out.
Pelicans vs Heat SGP
- Heat -8
- Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 points
- Zion Williamson Over 5.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Mitchell dishes out dimes
Davion Mitchell has been a quality starter in Miami, and he’s averaging 7.5 APG, eighth-most in the NBA. I’ll take the Over here, with Mitchell dishing 26 dimes across his last three outings, including 11 assists earlier this week against the Pistons.
Pelicans vs Heat SGP
- Heat -8
- Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 points
- Zion Williamson Over 5.5 rebounds
- Davion Mitchell Over 7.5 assists
Pelicans vs Heat odds
- Spread: Pelicans +8 | Heat -8
- Moneyline: Pelicans +265 | Heat -330
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Pelicans vs Heat betting trend to know
The Heat are 12-6 SU at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Heat.
How to watch Pelicans vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Pelicans+, FDSN Sun |
Pelicans vs Heat latest injuries
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