The NBA playoffs are sorting much of the wheat from the chaff. The Celtics certainly look poised to advance out of the first round after the Heat made this series interesting for a moment.
The Mavericks and the Clippers, however, are keeping things engaging. If there is any first-round series that looks deadset on reaching the full seven games, it is that clash.
Let’s create an NBA playoffs parlay on May 1 that includes NBA picks from both games tonight.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 1
- Heat TT Under 92.5 + Gafford Under 5.5 rebounds + Mavericks -3 (+490 DraftKings)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Wednesday
NBA parlay pick 1
Heat team total Under 92.5
Daniel Gafford Under 5.5 rebounds
Mavericks -3
Teams shoot better at home, yet the Miami Heat shot 18 of 65 from deep (27.7%) in their two home games in the last week. The good news is, they were at least shooting.
But if Miami can't knock down threes, it lacks the skill elsewhere to put up points on the best defense in the Eastern Conference. Boston losing Kristaps Porzingis does not change that. His rim presence allows the Celtics’ perimeter defenders to be a touch more aggressive, but the Heat offense is missing a true penetrator, anyway.
That is, effectively, Miami’s ultimate problem and the same one that has doomed the Pelicans and Suns in these playoffs. The Heatles are missing a true point guard who can facilitate the offense. Need proof, then look no further than the two home games where Bam Adebayo led Miami with eight total assists.
Adebayo is an elite player — one widely underappreciated — but you're in serious trouble if he's your best ball distributor. Losing Porzingis may hurt Boston against a team with a drive-and-dish style, but Miami has no one with such a mindset. Combine that with subpar shooting, and the Heat should struggle to score at all tonight.
A similar defensive wrinkle has limited Daniel Gafford’s minutes in this series against the Los Angeles Clippers. He was a rim-running threat as soon as he arrived in Dallas following the trade deadline, but Los Angeles has effectively defended the rim roll to such an extent Gafford has played only 16.5 minutes per game this series.
That lack of playing time has deflated all of his stats and, thus, his player props, but it has not deflated his rebounds prop enough. Gafford has to grab six boards to ruin this thought, whereas he needs only three or four successful trips to the rim to top a points prop of 7.5.
Combining that Gafford doubt, however minimal it is in a game sense, with the Dallas Mavericks to cover this spread adds value to this parlay’s payout. The thought in backing Dallas is simple: The Mavericks prepared for a worst-case scenario entering these playoffs, which is to say, they prepared for Kawhi Leonard.
Dallas did not thoroughly prep for how to defend Los Angeles without its best player. At the very least, this version of the Clippers caught the Mavericks off guard. That advantage is no longer, thanks to Game 4’s film. Dallas should slow down Los Angeles’ attack and cover this one-bucket spread.
Not intended for use in MA.
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