In a game that could shake up the East standings, the Indiana Pacers are heading to Miami to take on the Heat with both teams coming off tough losses against very different opponents. While Miami couldn’t pull out the win against the mighty Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers had it rougher, choking up against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Despite Indiana falling to one of the worst teams in the league, the NBA odds still only have them as a two-point road underdog against the Heat. That’s the Tyrese Haliburton effect with the All-Star guard ready to pop off again tonight.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Heat on Thursday, November 30.
Pacers vs Heat odds
Pacers vs Heat predictions
Few players are on Tyrese Haliburton’s level right now. The Pacers star has taken his game up a notch after making his first All-Star team last season. Through his first 15 games this season, he’s averaging a whopping 25.9 points, 11.9 assists, and 3.7 rebounds.
Not only does he lead the league in assists per game, but he’s one of only three players in the entire league to be averaging over 25 points and nine assists per game, along with Nikola Jokic and Trae Young.
While the Heat play hard-nosed defense, Haliburton’s been on such fire lately that the Over on his 36.5 points and assist line still plays. This season he’s had at least 37 combined points and assists in seven games and has topped 36.5 in seven of his last 11 games.
Moreover, Haliburton’s been scoring efficiently from all three levels. He’s eighth in the NBA in free-throw percentage (91.5%) on 4.7 attempts per game and he’s been money from behind the arc. The Iowa State alum has the highest 3-point percentage in the league among players who are taking at least seven threes per game, shooting 45.6% from three and nailing 3.8 per game on 8.3 attempts.
With a 25.6% usage rate, Haliburton is only 41st in the league in usage rate among players who have played at least 10 games, but it’s his efficiency that’s made him so dangerous with the ball in his hands.
LeBron James is the only player who is Top-20 in points per game this season and averaging fewer shots. Haliburton’s only putting up 17.1 per game, but connecting on 51.8% of them.
His shooting from the floor, behind the arc, and the free-throw line has been incredible and if he keeps it up, he’ll be well on his way to joining the 50-40-90 club — a feat he nearly accomplished last season.
When it comes to his assists giving the Over a boost here, Haliburton’s as good as it gets at picking up apples on the court. After finishing seventh in the league in assists two years ago and second last season, Haliburton’s been the best setup man in the league this year.
He’s on pace to average the 18th-most for a season in league history and be the first player to average over 11.8 assists per game in a season since John Stockton in 1994-95.
He’s averaging a combined 37.8 points and assists this season and has gone Over 11 assists in nine games and Over 25 points in seven of 15 games.
While the Heat will provide a tough test — they’re holding opponents to the seventh-fewest points per game in the league (109.1) — they’re allowing the fifth-highest 3-point percentage (38%), the ninth-most free throws per game (19.2), and the ninth-most assists per game to point guards (8.82).
My best bet: Tyrese Haliburton Over 36.5 points and assists (-115 at DraftKings)
Pacers vs Heat same-game parlay
Tyrese Haliburton Over 36.5 points and assists
Tyrese Haliburton Over 3.5 threes made
Myles Turner Over 15.5 points
Haliburton has been an ace from behind the three-point line this season and isn’t afraid to pull from deep. He’s taken at least seven threes in nine games this season and has hit at least four in seven of those games.
He’s been taking more shots from deep in recent games too, with at least 10 attempts from behind the arc in four of his last five games. In that five-game stretch, he’s taken 11.8 threes per game and hit seven per game for an absurd 59.3%.
Haliburton is the catalyst for the highest-scoring team in the NBA, with the Pacers going for 127.6 per game — that’s 5.1 more points per game than the next highest-scoring team, the Hawks.
For the offense to keep up with those points, and Haliburton to juice up his assists, Myles Turner will need to show up. He’s averaging 16.8 points per game this season and has hit at least 16 points in nine of 16 games this season.
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Pacers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
The Heat opened between 1.5 and 2.5-point favorites at pretty much every book, and while some have moved a half-point, they’ve all held strong between that range.
This season, Miami is 8-10 ATS and has gone 4-6 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 9-7 ATS and have gone 4-2 as underdogs.
The total for this one opened at 239.5 at most books, with some shifting down to 238.5. The Heat are 8-10 betting the Over this season, with this being their highest total yet. A big reason it’s so high is the Pacers offense, that’s helped them go a league-best 14-2 betting the Over.
Pacers vs Heat betting trend to know
The Indiana Pacers have hit the Over in 28 of their last 39 games (+17.00 Units / 40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Heat.
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Pacers vs Heat game info
|Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
|Thursday, November 30, 2023
|7:30 p.m. ET
|Bally Sports Indiana, Bally Sports Sun
Pacers vs Heat latest injuries
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