Last year's East champs are (we're sorry) ... heating up.
After a brutal offseason turnaround and multiple absences (most notably to Swiss-Army-Knife swingman Jimmy Butler), the Miami Heat are 8-2 in their last 10 games and skyrocketing up the stagnant East, now sitting fourth.
On the flipside are the Indiana Pacers, who are 2-8 over the last 10 and in danger of falling out of play-in contention.
Let's break down this NBA betting matchup and see if Indiana can set a different tone as we bring you our Pacers vs. Heat picks and predictions for Friday, March 19.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat betting preview
Injuries
Pacers: Jeremy Lamb SG (Questionable).
Heat: Trevor Ariza SF (Out), Avery Bradley G (Questionable), Andre Iguodala SF (Questionable), Gabe Vincent PG (Probable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Heat.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Miami -4.5, with the total at 215.5. Slight early money has come in on the Pacers and the Over at some books. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Pacers' season is falling apart faster than an awkward Jenga tower.
While Indiana's recent schedule stretch has been pretty brutal, it's responded with a total nosedive down the East standings, now just a half-game up on the COVID-paralyzed Raptors for 11th in the conference.
Their slide looks even more brutal from an ATS perspective, having covered just once in their past ten games.
Meanwhile, Miami is simply en fuego right now. Its recent run has come against far easier opposition than Indiana, but the results have been hard to argue with: 11 wins in the past 13 games, with a 9-4 ATS record in that same stretch.
Jimmy Butler has been playing a straight-up MVP level and is galvanizing a team that looked lost without him early in the season. He makes all the difference for the Heat's formerly-floundering offense as both their best scorer and playmaker, while setting the tone on defense with consistent effort and intensity.
Malcolm Brogdon could be in for a big night against a Miami backcourt that isn't terribly strong on D. But the Heat can check Domantas Sabonis with Bam Adebayo, who might be the single best foil for Indiana's offensive hub in the entire NBA. Terrible news for a team trying to right itself.
Momentum is absolutely a thing, particularly in this weird NBA schedule, with little time for practice and R&R. Indiana's a better team than their record indicates, and their schedule will get easier. But they're shook like half-way crooks right now, and Miami's too hot to mark as their get-right spot.
PREDICTION: Miami -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
A big part of Indiana's skid can be attributed to poor defense. The Pacers have given up 117.6 ppg over their past 11 contests - only Sacramento and Washington's comic-relief defenses are worse on the year.
As a result, the Pacers, in current form, are a pretty automatic Over bet. They're 10-3 to the Over in their past 13 games, all of which have been against totals equal or greater to this, with their 215.5 vs. New York representing the low end.
The Heat have wildly-oscillating offensive patterns, but have been lighting it up at home recently, averaging 114.6 ppg over their past five at American Airlines Arena, compared to their season average of 106.3 across all games.
Miami can win this game with their own defense, but with the Pacers bleeding so much on D, the tempo could easily swing the other way. A final score in the 115-108 range wouldn't shock us, which is more than enough to clear this modest total.
PREDICTION: Over 215.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Jimmy Buckets is a man possessed. Few players can impact a game in as many ways as Butler, and when he's dialed in - as he's been for most of his Heat tenure - it's pretty much impossible to prevent him from leaving fingerprints all over the game.
His pts+rebs+asts total sits at 38.5 for this matchup, safely below the 42.9 he's averaged over his past eight outings.
As mentioned above, Indiana's defense has been very suspect lately, and Butler's exactly the kind of high-intensity player who will attack relentlessly. If the Pacers clog the paint on him defensively and limit his scoring, he's more than capable of racking up extra assists and boards to push this Over.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Butler Over 38.5 pts+rebs+asts (-125)
Pacers vs Heat betting card
- Miami -4 (-110)
- Over 215.5 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 38.5 pts+rebs+asts (-125)
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