The Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics are set to square off for the fifth time this season on Tuesday, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup between Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton.
Yes, you read that correctly — Tyrese Haliburton is expected to play on Tuesday against the Celtics. But head coach Rick Carlisle stated that Haliburton would be brought along slowly and won't see his usual allotment of minutes.
Haliburton may be back, but find out why I believe we should target a different player's assists prop in my free NBA picks for Pacers vs. Celtics on Tuesday, January 30.
Pacers vs Celtics odds
Pacers vs Celtics predictions
Let's first dive into the injuries surrounding this matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics because they matter greatly. Boston's Kristaps Porzingis and Indiana's Myles Turner are both questionable, but most importantly, Tyrese Haliburton is back for the Pacers.
While Haliburton is expected to play, Rick Carlisle has stated he will be brought along gradually, so we shouldn't expect the normal allotment of minutes for Haliburton on Tuesday. This is a big factor in our best bet.
I think the Pascal Siakam odds on his assists prop were over-adjusted to account for the fact that Haliburton has returned to the Pacers lineup and will be on the ball a lot, taking the rock out of Siakam's hands. They dropped Siakam's total by more than a full assist, as he was trading in the 4.5 (-150) range with Haliburton out of the lineup.
I understand that Haliburton pushes Siakam off the ball, but he also brings efficient 3-point shooting to the floor for Siakam, something that Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell do not. A potential assist on a kick out to Haliburton spotting up from beyond the arc is much more likely to be converted than a kick out to Nembhard or McConnell. If anything, Nembhard and McConnell end up making an extra pass and then stealing the assist.
When you look at this matchup with the Celtics, you know their defense is elite, so it might scare you away from an Over bet for Siakam. But the Celtics' defense should actually help us here. There will be enough resistance on Siakam's drives that he will get cut off and have to create for others. In his most recent game against the Philadelphia 76ers, Siakam had 10 assists because the 76ers' defense was able to force him to pass. Siakam is surrounded by solid shooters in Indiana.
Siakam is projected to have 4.3 assists on Tuesday against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -152. It's trading at Caesars at -127, providing us with a positive expected value of 8%.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists (-127 at Caesars)
Pacers vs Celtics same-game parlay
Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 assists
Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 made 3s
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 assists
A significant aspect of our best bet wager is the Celtics' defense providing enough resistance to Siakam, forcing him to pass to some of the Pacers' shooters on his drives to the basket. With that in mind, I'm going to pair the Over 1.5 made 3s for Aaron Nesmith with our best bet of Siakam Over 3.5 assists. These bets are closely connected, as I expect several of the assists for Siakam to come from the Pacers' shooters knocking down shots from beyond the arc.
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 assists isn't connected to the Siakam bet by any means, it is just another bet I have placed as a straight wager in this game. I broke down why I like Holiday Over 4.5 assists in our daily NBA player props article. With not much resistance on the defensive end for the Pacers and their main rim protector in Myles Turner questionable, the potential assists from Holiday to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could be converted at a high rate on Tuesday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pacers vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
The Celtics opened as a 6-point favorite at FanDuel and have since moved to become a 7-point home favorite on Tuesday. If you're looking to back the Celtics on Tuesday, you might need to jump at this line of Celtics -7 sooner than later. Several sportsbooks have already pushed the number up to Celtics -7.5.
The total opened at 242.5 at DraftKings but has since been bet up to 245. This is undoubtedly a response to the fact that Haliburton is expected to play, but we could see some resistance on this move once we are provided with more clarity about his potential minutes. Make sure to shop around for the best number on the total, as you can find anywhere from 244.5 to 245.5 across a variety of sportsbooks.
Pacers vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 73 of their last 96 games (+23.60 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Celtics.
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Pacers vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Pacers vs Celtics latest injuries
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