After running through the Milwaukee Bucks with ease, the Indiana Pacers will now take a shot at the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round of the NBA playoffs.
With how they played in the opening round, my Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions explain why we can’t look past the underdogs in Game 1.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Sunday, May 4.
Who will win Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 1?
It’s hard to call an upset in Game 1, but I feel bold. The Indiana Pacers nearly took down the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago — a seemingly unwinnable series — and now they have a shot to stun the Cleveland Cavaliers.
With red-hot shooting in the first round, which countered some equally hot shooting from Milwaukee, the Pacers have every chance to out-shoot Cleveland and its lackluster 3-point defense. Give me Indiana.
Pacers vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet: Pacers +8.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Pacers proved a lot in their opening-round series with the Bucks, shutting down an offense that ended the regular season with a league-best 123.7 efficiency rating in April. That would be handy here against the Cavaliers, who scored a blistering 136.2 points per 100 possessions against the Miami Heat.
I’m interested in the Cavaliers’ ability to shoot the ball. It’s what transformed this team into a truly elite one, and in the first round, we saw them go 44.4% from downtown, according to Cleaning the Glass. That is going to be damn tough to stop. And to put a cherry on top, the Cavs ranked 10th in 3-point shooting in the final month of the regular season — so it’s not as if this came out of nowhere.
Indiana allowed 39.3% shooting from three against Milwaukee — the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA all season — and managed to win in five games. That was one of the worst marks of all playoff teams. How did the Pacers do it? Well, by shooting 40.2%.
Putting all of your eggs in one basket is risky, but 3-point shooting can make all the difference in the playoffs. Cleveland was just 16th against the three this season, four spots below Indiana, and on top of that, it wouldn’t seem to be much of a problem if the Cavs shoot the lights out given what we saw in the opening round.
The Pacers will be playing from behind on the glass, but they’ve done a good enough job to prevent that from being an inescapable edge. I expect big things here from Indiana.
Pacers vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Pacers +8.5
Ty Jerome Over 12.5 points
Myles Turner Over 1.5 threes
I’ll go with Ty Jerome to keep things up after posting a couple of 13+ point games. He’s been seeing steady minutes and shooting a ton from inside the arc, where the Pacers have had trouble. With steady volume, he should get here in a fast-paced game.
I also like keeping with the trend we laid out above with the Pacers and 3-pointers. Turner will have an excellent shot to make his presence felt against a frontcourt that struggles to defend the perimeter. On top of that, he’s taken six 3-pointers in three of his last five.
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Pacers vs Cavaliers odds
Pacers vs Cavaliers live odds
Pacers vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +8 (-110) | Cleveland -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana +270 | Cleveland -340
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 (-110) | Under 229.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cavaliers games have cleared the Over in 56 of their last 88 games.
- The Cavs have gone Over their team total in 53 of those.
- The Pacers covered the spread in three of five games vs. the Bucks.
Pacers vs Cavaliers trend
The Indiana Pacers have covered the 4Q Spread in 36 of their last 52 games (+18.80 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Pacers vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, 5-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Pacers vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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