Nuggets vs Trail Blazers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Points Are at a Premium Against Denver's Defense

Following an absolute rout of Washington last night, Denver will look for an encore when it pays a visit to the Moda Center to face a banged-up Portland roster. Read more in our Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers betting picks.

Feb 23, 2024 • 17:18 ET • 4 min read
Anfernee Simons Portland Trail Blazers NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets got to ease into the unofficial second half of the season last night, thumping the lowly Washington Wizards in a rout. 

However, will Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets be able to put up another impressive showing as big favorites in the NBA odds when they head to the Moda Center to take on the Portland Trail Blazers? 

I break down this Northwest Division matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers on February 23.

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers odds

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers predictions

The Denver Nuggets were struggling a bit heading into the All-Star break, having lost three in a row. So, the defending champs needed a get-right game to kick off the unofficial second half of the NBA season, and boy, did they sure get one against the Washington Wizards.

The Nuggets throttled the Wizards 130-110 as 15.5-point home favorites. Nikola Jokic recorded yet another triple-double, while Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon all put up 17+ points.

Sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference, the Nuggets now have their sights set on a Portland Trail Blazers team that has lost six games in a row by an average margin of 14.2 points per game. 
We knew the Blazers' offense was going to take a step back when they traded Damian Lillard to Milwaukee, but I’m not sure many thought it would be this bad.

Portland has arguably the worst offense in the NBA at this point. The Blazers rank next to last in offensive rating and are dead last when it comes to effective field goal percentage. That has resulted in a scoring offense that is second worst in the Association, putting up just 107.9 ppg.

Already without three key rotation pieces in Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, and Scoot Henderson, Portland will be tasked with scoring against a Denver lineup that ranks 10th in defensive rating and sixth in opponent-effective field goal percentage. The Nuggets also do an excellent job of defending the perimeter, allowing the third-fewest 3-point attempts and second-fewest makes per game.

Portland’s team total for this one is currently listed at 104.5. With the Blazers' offensive woes and injury situation, getting buckets could be tough, even with Denver playing its second game in as many nights.

Portland has been held below this number in three of its last five games, and I’m betting it will happen again tonight.

My best bet: Trail Blazers team total Under 104.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Trail Blazers team total Under 104.5

Jerami Grant Under 21.5 points

Anfernee Simons Under 5.5 assists

If the Blazers are going to have a tough time getting buckets, that means someone is going below their point total... and I’m looking at Jerami Grant. Although the Blazers forward is averaging 21.5 points per game over his last 15 contests, eight of those have seen Grant fail to reach 20. 

And let’s close this SGP out with Anfernee Simons to go Under 5.5 assists. Simons averages 5.3 assists per game this season and has gone Under this number in four of his last six games. The Nuggets also allow the seventh-fewest assists per game in the NBA, and with all the guys who are out for the Blazers, Denver will be honing in on Portland's shooting guard.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nuggets vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nuggets opened this matchup as 9.5-point road favorites. Since then, it has been announced that Jamal Murray won’t play in this one, and there was a very slight adjustment, with Denver now sitting at -9. 

The Nuggets won the two previous meetings, but the Trail Blazers covered both matchups. The Nuggets are also a subpar 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games on the road.

When it comes to the total, that hit the board at 219.5 and has since come down as low as 217.5 at some shops. The two previous meetings closed with totals of 220.5 and 220 with the Over/Under both taking turns cashing. 

For many of the same reasons above, this tends to lead toward the Under. The Nuggets might not push themselves and also play at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA, while the Blazers are downright bad on offense. 

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Nuggets have hit the game total Under in 56 of their last 89 games (+21.9 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers.

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Nuggets vs Trail Blazers game info

Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Date: Friday, February 23, 2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: Altitude, Root Sports

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