This iteration of the Oklahoma City Thunder has never even played in a Game 7, let alone won one. Their most recent Game 7 came in the 2020 bubble, only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort remaining from that rotation.
This iteration of the Denver Nuggets won a Game 7 last round, the sixth Game 7 with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray at Denver’s core. They have gone 4-2 outright in those games, a positive indicator but not as much of one as the ample experience in these moments.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks trust the more veteran team, even if not explicitly outright. Tip comes at 3:30 ET on Sunday, May 18.
Nuggets vs Thunder SGP - May 18
Thunder team total Under 111.5
Nikola Jokic Under 30.5 points
Christian Braun Over 1.5 threes
The Oklahoma City Thunder have fallen short of their team totals five times in six games in this series. Despite having the No. 1 offensive rating in the NBA following the All-Star Break, they are being stifled by the No. 23 defensive rating in that same stretch.
Credit the Denver Nuggets interim head coach, David Adelman. Credit the physicality of the playoffs. Credit the prep time available in the playoffs.
Blame the Thunder’s one-dimensional offense. Fault Oklahoma City shooting just 32.6% from deep, compared to 40.5% in the 28 games following the All-Star Break. Fault the Thunder taking 3-pointers on only 40.4% of their shots, compared to 41.9% following the All-Star break, a meager drop but still a drop, nonetheless.
Mostly, Oklahoma City’s offense has been figured out, at least relatively speaking. Overcommit to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on drives and trust the likes of Lu Dort (29.8%), Jalen Williams (21.2%), and Chet Holmgren (25.0%) to miss from deep.
The tensions of a Game 7 will not help those three. Add in the presumptive MVP, and those four are making just 26.2% of their 3-pointers while attempting a combined 21.7 per game. That many misses doom team totals, simply enough.
Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic has fallen short of this points prop in four of the six games in this series. That is related to Oklahoma City’s scoring troubles. The Thunder live on defense, and they are sacrificing some offensive efficiency by playing Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein, both in hopes of somewhat slowing the best player in the world.
Jokic’s best hope is often moving the ball. His assists totals have not been massive in this series — averaging just six per game — but he has had potential assists throughout, hence his assists prop still being set at 8.5. That said, Michael Porter Jr.’s sprained shoulder has clearly impacted his shooting, and now Aaron Gordon may be sidelined with a hamstring injury. Russell Westbrook’s shooting hand is banged up.
Someone has to shoot for Denver. It may be Christian Braun or bust.
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