The Denver Nuggets sent a warning shot across the NBA Playoffs with a stunning Game 1 victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Denver pulled off the outright upset as double-digit underdogs in OKC and faces a similar spread and pissed-off Oklahoma City squad in Game 2 tonight.
I've looked through the Nuggets vs. Thunder props to find my top three NBA picks for this May 7 tilt.
Hungry for more? Our Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions have you covered.
Best Nuggets vs Thunder props
-
Murray o2.5 threes (+125) -
Williams 20+ pts/5+ ast (+130) - Hartenstein o8.5 rebounds (-125)
Nuggets vs Thunder player props for May 7
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
I’m going back to the well on this 3-point prop after coming up short in Game 1. Jamal Murray made two triples early into Game 1 but couldn’t find his range for the remainder of the game, finishing 2-for-7 from beyond the arc.
Murray has been inconsistent from outside in the playoffs, with a barrage of triples one game followed by quiet performances from the perimeter the next. He’s made three or more from deep in three of his eight postseason contests but is shooting a steady 39% from distance.
Murray finished Game 1 with 21 points but was a chilly 6-for-16 from the field with four turnovers. His 2-for-7 finish from outside wasn’t due to tight OKC defense by any means. Murray’s shot just wasn’t dropping. All seven 3-point attempts were considered open/wide open with no defender within six feet or more.
With Denver installed as a sizeable underdog again, game script believes the Nuggets will be trailing and needing points in a hurry. Game 1’s tempo lived up to expectations with these teams laying down a pace rating of 105.0. That means plenty of possessions for both sides.
Game models for Murray range from 2.2 to 2.8 makes from 3-point land, with my number at 2.8 triples. That should have the Over 2.5 3-balls priced around -105, but you can get +125 on that result at bet365.
Jalen Williams 20+ points/5+ assists (+130 at bet365)
A lot of things went sideways for the Thunder in Game 1, including a poor outing from Jalen Williams.
The usually reliable small forward shot 5-for-20 from the floor and scored only 16 points — his lowest output of the postseason and his fewest points scored in almost a month.
That lackluster performance garnered the ire of ESPN flamethrower Stephen A. Smith, who singled out Williams as the sole reason OKC is down 0-1 in the series. That nationally televised lambasting will put some pep in Williams’ step in Game 2.
Player projections all sit on the other side of 20 points for Williams, with my number coming out to 21.4. That’s a tick short of his scoring Over/Under for Wednesday (22.5 O/U). Assist projections range from 4.8 to 5.6 dimes, with mine boiling down to 5.3 helpers — again just shy of his Game 2 O/U prop (5.5 O.U).
But combining those markets in a same-game parlay, we can take Williams to score 20+ points and hand out 5+ assists at +130. He averaged 21.6 and 5.3 assists on the season and tallied 20+ points and five or more assists in all four games against Memphis in Round 1.
Williams, who shot 54% from the floor against the Grizzlies, should have a strong scoring effort in Game 2. While he only recorded four dimes vs. Game 1, he did register 11.5 potential assists.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)
Oklahoma City’s “other” 7-footer is vital to its success in this series, as he might be a better matchup on Nuggets all-world center Nikola Jokic.
Isaiah Hartenstein logged 29 minutes in Game 1 — a playoff high — recording 12 points, nine rebounds, and five fouls in an effort to body Jokic, in contrast to Chet Holmgren’s length on defense.
Hartenstein is more of a rim protector, which means when he’s not chasing Jokic, he’s not straying too far from the paint. His advanced metrics show 16.0 rebound chances in Game 1, and his Game 2 projections are bullish on the boards.
Rebounding models range from 7.7 to 11 rebounds from Hartenstein, with my number just north of 10 boards. His rebounding total is at 8.5 O/U, and we’ve seen some sharper books jumping from Over 8.5 -115 to -150.
Given my forecast, the Over 8.5 should be carrying vig as high as -175, but you can find a more reasonable ask of -125 at bet365. Hartenstein has hauled down nine or more rebounds in three of his five postseason outings and averaged almost 11 boards on the season.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
