Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs tips off in the West when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets tonight.
Oklahoma City is a big favorite coming off an extended break, but I’m more interested in evaluating the individuals taking the floor at the Paycom Center.
Here are my best Nuggets vs. Thunder props and NBA picks for Game 1 on May 5.
Best Nuggets vs Thunder props
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Murray o2.5 threes (+140) - Westbrook o3.5 assists (-120)
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Dort o12.5 points+rebounds (-140)
Nuggets vs Thunder player props for May 5
Jamal Murray Over 2.5 threes (+140 at bet365)
Jamal Murray had a somewhat subdued series with the L.A. Clippers, at least compared to his past postseason performance. He averaged 23 points but did erupt for 43 in a crucial Game 5 win for the Denver Nuggets.
He poured in eight 3-pointers during that outburst from outside, and while he didn’t overwhelm L.A. with his touch from beyond the arc in the series, Murray shot almost 41% from three and made 2.7 shots from distance per game.
This matchup with OKC will be played at a different gear than those games with the Clippers. The Thunder run one of the more up-tempo styles (No. 5 in pace rating), and all four clashes with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the regular season were track meets — boasting an average pace rating of 101.38.
The Game 1 spread is teetering on double figures, which writes a game script that calls for Denver to be trailing big. The Nuggets will turn to their veteran point guard to take and make key shots from deep to close the gap quickly.
Murray’s player projections for tonight range from 2.4 to 2.8 long balls, with my number at 2.7. That should have the Over 2.5 triples priced around EVEN money, instead of +140 at bet365.
Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
Russell Westbrook’s career has come full circle, facing the team that originally drafted him in Round 2.
The cagey guard was vital to the Nuggets’ success against Los Angeles, making the most of his minutes. Westbrook averaged almost 14 points, five rebounds, and three assists in over 25 minutes of floor time in the series.
Westbrook put up great numbers against OKC during the regular season, including a 29-point, six-rebound, six-assist effort at home on November 6. He averaged 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in four meetings with the NBA’s top team for the season.
His assist total for tonight sits at 3.5 Over/Under — a bar Westbrook breached only twice against the Clippers while posting 5.3 potential assists over that seven-game set. But he recorded four or more dimes in 18 of his final 22 games of the regular season, and Game 1 models are very bullish on his passing prowess.
Projections range from 4.5 assists to 6.0 against the Thunder, with my forecast north of five helpers. That should have this prop priced at -270 rather than the -120 ask at bet365.
Lu Dort Over 12.5 points+rebounds (-140 at bet365)
Lu Dort does it all for the Thunder, from top-tier defending to scoring, to cleaning the glass.
Against Memphis, the Thunder’s stocky guard wasn’t asked to put up buckets and only averaged 6.5 points while hauling in five rebounds per outing in the series sweep. One-sided scores and foul trouble also chipped away at Dort’s minutes in a couple of those games.
Game 1 models predict more production from Dort on offense, with his scoring forecasts all north of 10.5 points — more in line with his season average. Rebounding projections all sit at 4.0 or higher, and the prop markets have jumped from 3.5 O/U to 4.5 O/U for Dort’s work on the glass.
Dort thrived against the Nuggets in their regular season matchups, including a 26-point performance in their most recent contest on March 10. Over four games vs. Denver, Dort averaged 12 points and 5.3 rebounds — snatching six or more boards in three of those meetings.
Given the Game 1 projections, Dort could top this combo prop on points alone, but we’ll bolster the Over with his rebounding. I have him pegged for 11 points and five rebounds, which puts us well beyond the 12.5 total. Some books have pumped this combo prop up to 13.5 O/U on gameday.
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