A Western Conference matchup with massive playoff seeding implications will go down at Staples Center on Saturday night, with the Denver Nuggets taking on the L.A. Clippers. Denver is just half a game back of L.A. as the NBA hits its home stretch, so this one will be among the premier NBA betting games over the weekend.
Here are our best free picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Clippers on May 1 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
(Editor's note: These picks were made prior to Saturday evening's news that Kawhi Leonrd would return for the Clippers vs. the Trail Blazers.
Nuggets vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles hit PointsBet USA's odds board as a 4.5-point favorite overnight and by midafternoon was up to -6, where the line remains at 7 p.m. ET. But it's two-way action on the point spread, with 59 percent of tickets on the Nuggets and 57 percent of money on the Clippers. The total moved from 224.5 to 221.5 by late morning, and it's still at 221.5, although the Over is getting 73 percent of tickets/80 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNuggets at Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Nuggets: Will Barton SG (Questionable), Monte Morris PG (Out), Jamal Murray PG (Out).
Clippers: Patrick Beverley PG (Out), Serge Ibaka PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs opponents with a winning record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
As if the tension between the Clippers and Nuggets could get any higher, after Denver embarrassed L.A. in a 3-1 Western Conference semifinals comeback in the bubble, but the two teams are now in a tight seeding race. The Clippers, 43-21 SU and 36-27-1 ATS, are clinging to the third seed with the Nuggets, at 42-21 SU and 30-33 ATS, right behind them.
In any year, a team may want a particular seed to order to get or avoid an opponent, but this year, the stakes are far higher, with the reigning champion L.A. Lakers in the fifth seed. A first-round matchup against a healthy Lakers team would likely mean a first-round exit for two of the conference's best teams in the Clips and Nuggets.
With Paul George hobbled by injury, L.A. then lost Kawhi Leonard to a sore foot. However, it has battled well, going 3-2 in Leonard's absence — a record made uglier by a current three-game losing streak, after back-to-back wins. Currently led by irrational confidence All-Star Reggie Jackson and George, the Clippers have been unreliable against the spread, with a 1-4 in their last five.
In contrast, the Nuggets have been stellar since the heartbreaking season-ending injury suffered by Jamal Murray. Without Murray, Denver is 8-1 and riding a four-game winning streak, with Michael Porter Jr. taking yet another step toward stardom. While the Nuggets are just 4-5 ATS without Murray, they were a point vs. the Rockets and half a point vs. the Blazers away from a 6-3 ATS mark.
There's only one team to trust in this matchup, and it isn't the one that blew a 3-1 lead.
PREDICTION: Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
With MVP favorite Nikola Jokic at the heart of everything they do on offense, it shouldn't come as a surprise to see the Nuggets' offense regularly topping their season-long points per game average even without Murray. At 35-28 O/U on the year, Denver has been one of the best Over bets in the NBA and as long as Jokic is suiting up, that won't change.
Though L.A. has slipped down to 11th in defensive rating, it has put in a few gutsy efforts on defense without Leonard. At 1-4 O/U in the five games Leonard has sat out, with the only Over coming against the horrific Portland defense, the Clips have begun to be a more middling O/U team, now 33-30-1 on the year. Leonard may be their best scorer and a solid initiator, but there is still offense in L.A.'s lineup, especially with George's hot shooting and Jackson's shockingly good form.
Jokic and Denver can singlehandedly drag most games Over, and in a matchup the Clippers will be desperate to win, they'll have to muster the firepower to match them.
PREDICTION: Over 222.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
From the time Michael Porter Jr. was in high school, we have known he was a potentially All-NBA caliber scorer. Due to injuries and off-court issues, as well as two elite offensive talents sharing the floor with him, Porter Jr. has only shown that in flashes in Denver.
Since Murray went down, however, Porter Jr. has made a huge leap with increased responsibility. In nine games as Jokic's main running mate, Porter Jr. has averaged 25.6 points per game, up nearly seven points on his season average, on excellent shooting. He may be on a hot streak, but Porter Jr. is the truth regardless.
PREDICTION: Michael Porter Jr. Over 22.5 Points (-120)
Nuggets vs Clippers betting card
- Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
- Over 222.5 (-110)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 22.5 Points (-120)
Picks made on 5/1/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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