NBA bettors have been waiting for the Toronto Raptors to roll over and die, but to the Dinos' credit, they're a resilient bunch. Having faced almost every obstacle imaginable this season, the Raptors are defiantly refusing to tank, still looking to catch the suddenly-red-hot Washington Wizards for an East play-in berth.
Tonight, their quest to keep the NBA's second-longest active playoff streak alive brings them to the Utah Jazz's doorstep. The Jazz are short-handed for tonight's NBA betting tilt, but share the league's best record, and are a pretty bad matchup for Toronto.
Find out just how bad with our Raptors vs. Jazz picks and predictions for Saturday, May 1.
Raptors vs Jazz odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonUtah opened as 7.5-point chalk overnight at PointsBet USA, dipped to -6.5 by early this afternoon and is -7 at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Jazz are attracting 72 percent of bets and 79 percent of money on the spread. The total plunged from 225.5 to 216 and is now 216.5, with 57 percent of bets on the Over, but 67 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRaptors at Jazz betting preview
Injuries
Raptors: Kyle Lowry PG (Out), Gary Trent Jr. SG (Out), Chris Boucher C (Out), Fred VanVleet PG (Probable).
Jazz: Donovan Mitchell SG (Out), Mike Conley PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Raptors are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Jazz.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This is a big spread for Utah to take down with both parts of their All-Star backcourt still in casuals. But the Raptors have shown few reasons to trust them, and we think this matchup plays in Utah's favor for several reasons.
Most glaring is the glass, where Toronto owns the NBA's third-worst rebounding rate. Utah gobbles up boards at the NBA's second-highest clip, and while new import Khem Birch has helped shore up the Raptors' pathetic glass presence, he can't offset an imposing force like Rudy Gobert.
Then there's the fate of one Pascal Siakam, who was finally turning his slumping season around before averaging 10.5 points on a rancid 26 percent from the floor over the past two games. It's going to be tough for him to break out of that mini-funk tonight with Royce O'Neale in his grill all game. Siakam's most confident nights also come when he can get to the rim early, which is a generally dumb idea with Gobert lurking.
Having no Kyle Lowry tonight is a big minus, diluting the Raptors' attack and taking away an ace defensive cover against Jordan Clarkson. With Siakam slumping and Fred VanVleet clearly still dealing with after-effects from COVID and a bum hip, the Raptors will have to seek heavy doses of secondary offense.
The Jazz are technically on a back-to-back, but last night's loss in Phoenix was a blowout in which none of Utah's starters played more than 30 minutes. Count on them to get the job done here against a Raptors side that's only covered once in their last 11 road games.
PREDICTION: Utah -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This total of 216.5 seems awfully low, considering the Jazz just uncorked 154 points on Sacramento earlier this week, but that showing is probably more of a testament to Sacramento's legendarily crappy defense than anything else.
With no Lowry, Gary Trent Jr. or Chris Boucher, and both of their young stars slumping, Toronto is going to struggle to score tonight. It really doesn't help matters that Utah has the NBA's third-rated defense.
Both these teams are going to play at an average tempo (Raptors rank 14th in pace, Jazz 15th), and with Toronto having less instant offense, you can expect their possessions to be a little more deliberate.
Overall, the Raps should expect to register well below the 111.1 ppg they're averaging in April, while the Jazz, excluding their outlier against Sacramento, are averaging just 100 ppg in their last three games, two of which were against the T-Wolves' 28th-ranked defense. While Utah still has the potential to offset Mitchell and Conley's absences in aggregate, they could over-perform on offense and still have Toronto let us down here. Back the Under, but wait and see if it ticks back up before tipoff.
PREDICTION: Under 217 (-110)
Player prop pick
As noted above, VanVleet is a hurting unit right now. FVV delivered on his record-breaking offseason deal (the largest ever for an undrafted player), and would've likely made the All-Star game if Toronto's season didn't go sideways from Day 1.
But his brilliance was offset by both physical injury and a bout with COVID, and it's very clear that he hasn't been himself this month.
VanVleet's listed as probable, so sportsbooks are still rolling out a full array of player props. And while he'll have the green light, we really don't see him topping 20.5 pts against an elite defense, even with ace cover Conley sitting.
Van Vleet has missed nine of the last 14 games, averaging 12.7 ppg in April on just 35 percent from the field. He's topped tonight's number just once in his past seven games, and we're honestly a little surprised it's not juiced up more.
PREDICTION: Fred VanVleet Under 20.5 points (-118)
Raptors vs Jazz betting card
- Utah -6.5 (-110)
- Under 217 (-110)
- Fred VanVleet Under 20.5 points (-118)
Picks made on 5/1/2021 at 12:00 p.m. ET
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