The Dallas Mavericks head north of the border to face off against the Toronto Raptors in NBA action on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams are on a two-game slide and will try to stay above .500 with a win.
The Mavs have struggled on the road this season but are installed as 2.5-point away favorites against a Toronto squad that has been decimated by injuries.
Here are my best free Mavericks vs. Raptors NBA picks and predictions for November 26.
Mavericks vs Raptors best odds
Mavericks vs Raptors picks and predictions
The Mavericks have struggled on the road, going 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS), and no matchup means more traveling for them than a trip to Toronto.
However, this is a healthy team that was expected to be a dark horse in the Western Conference and is led by the MVP favorite Luka Doncic. They should be able to cover a relatively short spread against a Raptors squad that has been wrecked by injuries.
Not only is Toronto's best player, Pascal Siakam, sidelined by an injury but so is starting forward (and reigning Rookie of the Year) Scottie Barnes along with a pair of key reserves in Otto Porter and Precious Achiuwa. Meanwhile, All-Star point guard Fred VanVleet and backup Dalano Banton are both questionable after sitting out Wednesday.
The Mavs have a strong defensive team and should be able to limit the short-handed Raptors, who will have a tough time scoring without their best playmakers. Meanwhile, Doncic will be able to carry them on the offensive end of the floor.
My best bet: Mavericks -2.5 (-107 at PointsBet)
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Mavericks vs Raptors spread analysis
Dallas has dropped two in a row, most recently losing to the Celtics by 13 points on Wednesday. The Mavs are the worst ATS team in the NBA and have covered just once in their last 13 games. That said, they did win seven of those contests, including a November 4 matchup against the Raps, where they edged them by a single point in Dallas.
Toronto had Siakam and Barnes in that contest (but no VanVleet) and their absence will be felt tonight. The Raptors are coming off a 112-98 loss to the Nets on Wednesday and are 4-5 SU (3-6 ATS) since losing Siakam to a knee injury.
Siakam was leading the team in points (24.9), rebounds (9.3), and assists per game (7.7), and Barnes had stepped up in his absence. Barnes dropped a season-high 28 points with 11 rebounds and nine assists against the Hawks last Saturday but a knee sprain will keep him out of his second-straight game.
The Mavs are just one game above .500 but they are sixth in the NBA in net rating (plus-3.1) and rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Doncic has been carrying the team on offense with 34 ppg, 9 rpg, and 8.1 apg but he needs more consistent help from Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Wood. Wood has looked good lately, dropping at least 26 points in three of his last four games, and the matchup between him and Raptors sixth man Chris Boucher should be pivotal.
Mavericks vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The Mavs continue to be a stingy defensive team under Jason Kidd and they currently rank ninth in the NBA in defensive rating. That, combined with the extremely slow pace they play at, has resulted in Dallas allowing the second-fewest ppg (106.5) in the league.
The Raps love jumping out on the fast break but when they set up in the half-court they soak up the clock and are 23rd in tempo while ranking ninth in scoring defense (110.1 ppg).
With these offenses taking their time with the ball they rarely turn the ball over which leads to fewer opportunities for their foes to score quickly in transition.
Without Siakam, Barnes, and VanVleet the Raptors started Thad Young, Christian Koloko, and Malachi Flynn versus the Nets on Wednesday. While there's an obvious massive gap on offense between those players, the difference in defensive ability is less significant.
Mavericks vs Raptors betting trend to know
Despite the slow pace and strong defensive play of both teams, oddsmakers might be setting totals a tad too low. The Over is 4-1 in the Mavs' last five road games while going 5-2 in Toronto's previous seven. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Raptors.
Mavericks vs Raptors game info
|Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
|Saturday, November 26, 2022
|5:00 p.m. ET
|Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southwest