Our NBA picks and predictions series once more turns its gaze west as the Utah Jazz look to stave off a disastrous 3-1 series deficit Saturday, April 23rd when they face a Dallas Mavericks team that smells blood.
The NBA betting outlook is riddled with uncertainty due to a potential Luka Doncic return, but there’s more than enough data through three games to make some key calls about Mavericks vs. Jazz Game 4.
Mavericks vs Jazz odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread opened with Utah getting as much as -4.5 points at some books, moving slightly further to -5. The total has seen a similar slight rise moving from 211.5 to 212.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Jazz predictions
Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Jazz game info
• Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
• Date: Saturday, April 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Mavericks vs Jazz series odds
Mavericks: -210
Jazz: +175
Mavericks vs Jazz betting preview
Key injuries
Mavericks: Luka Doncic (Questionable).
Jazz: None.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 5-0 in Mavericks’ last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Jazz.
Mavericks vs Jazz picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Utah Jazz are in deep trouble. A series that should have been in the bag after Luka Doncic missed the first three games now might spell the end of this era of Jazz basketball. Luka is officially listed as questionable for Game 4, and it’s possible that the Mavs, now assured of at least a 2-2 series going back to Dallas, will be content to spot Luka further time to convalesce.
But Luka is a consummate competitor, and if he feels there’s no risk of reinjury, I’d expect him to suit up. With both he and the emerging Jalen Brunson on the attack, it’s difficult to see how Utah will stop the bleeding.
What’s worse, is that even though Utah is losing, the Jazz offense (outside of still being unable to generate 3s due to the Mavericks' efforts on the perimeter) has been pretty good. They had a 125.8 offensive rating in Game 3, buoyed by an unsustainable free throw rate of 44.9% and 60.9% shooting from the mid-range. Neither of those are likely to happen again, whereas the Dallas offense has found a tried-and-true repeatable formula. Ironically, it’s one the Jazz know well.
The Jazz call it “getting the blender going”, breaking the paint, forcing help, and spraying passes to open corner shooters when the opposing team is caught in rotation. By playing Maxi Kleber at center, Dallas was able to activate the blender and stretch Utah’s defense to its breaking point. Dallas generated 15 corner 3s in Game 3, most of which were wide-open shots. They shot 60% on those looks. The Jazz generated just four, hitting one.
The Jazz were totally unable to punish the Mavericks for playing small, grabbing only a single offensive rebound over the course of 48 minutes. The only time the Jazz offense looked to have any flow at all is when they downsized as well, trading Rudy Gobert for Eric Paschall at small-ball center. But even that stretch largely came with Kleber on the bench in foul trouble.
Luka or no, Dallas has figured out this Jazz defense. While most teams show a sense of desperation when faced with the prospect of a 3-1 hole, nothing about this Jazz season suggests they won’t wilt under pressure.
Prediction: Dallas +5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Here are the totals from the first three games of the series: 192 in Game 1, 214 in Game 2, and 234 (!) in Game 3. Of those three games, Game 1 is likely the least representative, because Dallas had not yet discovered that the key to beating this Jazz team is to stretch them out with Kleber, or another small-ball center. Even when Kleber got into foul trouble in Game 3, the Mavericks went to Davis Bertans and even Dorian Finney-Smith in that role. Dallas took just 22% of their shots at the rim in Game 3 but managed a 133 offensive rating. Gobert is Utah’s defensive scheme, and the way Dallas is playing essentially removes him from the action completely.
That leaves even more responsibility on Utah’s point-of-attack defenders, namely Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. At this point, there’s simply no excuse for how poor of a defender Mitchell has become. Both his effort and technique place him among the bottom tier of NBA defenders, and the Mavericks’ explicit game plan was to hunt him relentlessly in Game 3. On top of all that, Dallas are road warriors, with the Over hitting in the Mavericks' last five road games. As their 134-point Game 3 showing demonstrated, their shooting doesn’t falter when in an opposing barn.
The only worry is if Utah’s scoring can keep pace. Even though their free throws and floaters won’t come as easily, this was still the number one offense in the NBA during the regular season. Bojan Bogdanovic has also stepped up massively as an isolation and post scorer for the Jazz, and I expect Utah will give their own small-ball units more run in Game 4 if the offense stagnates again.
Prediction: Over 212.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
The 2020-2021 Los Angeles Clippers gave these Mavericks the blueprint. Maxi Kleber as a small-ball five, stretching out the already-thin Jazz defense, has unleashed this Mavericks offense. Rudy Gay, who was brought in to be Utah’s answer to small-ball in the offseason, didn’t even get off the bench in Game 3.
The Jazz simply don’t have many tactical options they can turn to in order to slow down Dallas, even a zone defense as some have suggested will only encourage the Mavericks to shoot even more 3s. A potential Luka return only makes this Over an even more appealing bet.
Pick: Over 212.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
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