The Los Angeles Clippers’ opening-round NBA Playoffs series with the Dallas Mavericks is now a best-of-three set after the Clippers returned serve with a pair of road wins to even this Western Conference quarterfinal at 2-2.
With momentum swinging heavily toward Los Angeles and Luka Doncic’s neck injury a lingering concern, the NBA betting odds opened L.A. as low as -6 for Game 5 and that spread jumped as much as 1.5 points to Clips -7.5, despite the early bet count leaning toward the underdog Mavericks inside Staples Center.
Check out free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Clippers on June 2.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Wednesday, June 2, 2021
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles landed on the William Hill US odds board as a 6.5-point favorite Monday morning, moved to -7 in short order and then on to -7.5 by lunch hour on game day. As of 6:30 p.m. ET, the Clippers remain at -7.5, with the Mavericks getting 52 percent of spread bets and L.A. taking 63 percent of spread money. The total dipped from 217.5 to 217, with the Over grabbing 81 percent of of bets, but just 58 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Clippers series odds
Mavericks: +290
Clippers: -385
Mavericks vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Luka Doncic G (Probable), J.J. Reddick G (Out).
Clippers: Serge Ibaka F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in Mavericks’ last eight road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
In terms of NBA Playoffs lifespan, Dallas’ two wins in L.A. to open this series were a lifetime ago, especially when you consider the defensive adjustments the Clippers made in the previous two games and just how far the Mavs have fallen off in the last 72 minutes of action.
Los Angeles has outscored Dallas 161-128 in that span, including a 106-81 trouncing in Game 4, after losing the opening 168 minutes of this series, 301-287. And it’s not like the Clippers’ scoring just showed up – it’s been there all along – and has been the one constant through four very different contests.
The chatter entering this series was how would L.A. slow down Doncic but the real story, now, is can Dallas slow down Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Clippers’ stars have buckled the Mavericks the past two games and have L.A. owning an advanced offensive rating of 123.1 in the postseason – just below Milwaukee and Utah.
That puts even more pressure on Doncic to perform perfectly, which is becoming harder to do as he fights through a painful neck injury and sees his support staff fade away, with Los Angeles paying closer attention to guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and exploiting Kristaps Porzingis’ soft spots. The Mavericks offensive rating dipped from 128.3 in Games 1 and 2 to 105.0 in Games 3 and 4.
In order to avoid giving this series completely over to the Clippers and staying within this Game 5 spread, you’re asking a less-than-average defense to suddenly show up… on the road, no less, against the most potent one-two punch in the NBA.
The bets count for Game 5 may be siding with the points and the Mavericks, but the bulk of the money is on the Clippers (60 percent of handle on L.A.), indicating that sharp players aren’t afraid to lay the lumber with Los Angeles.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Doncic had a bad night in Game 4, finishing with only 19 points on 9-of-24 shooting in close to 36 minutes of floor time. Whether his ailing neck or the Clippers’ adjustments to a smaller lineup was the defining factor, I do expect a stronger showing from him Wednesday.
Doncic told reporters his neck was improving ahead of Game 5 and because of the swing in venue, the Mavericks get an extra day between games to allow their star to heal up. It’s clear Dallas isn’t going to win this series with defense and needs Doncic to go off in order to keep pace on the scoreboard.
Dallas is a rare breed that actually performs better on offense away from home (114.2 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting) and the Clippers post nearly 116 points per game in the Staples Center on the year, where they’re 7-5 Over/Under against sub-220 totals.
The total for Game 5 opened 218.5 and has shrunk to 217 – a knee-jerk reaction to the low-scoring Game 4 result.
PREDICTION: Over 217 (-110)
Player prop pick
The downturn for Dallas’ role players has been one of the bigger differences between the results in the first two games and the last two contests.
Guys like Hardaway, Porzingis and Dorian Finney-Smith haven’t backed up their superstar, with the Clippers giving the supporting cast some respect and keeping closer tabs on them. Hardaway, who totaled 49 points in the opening two games, has just 16 total points in the past two outings.
The Clippers have multiple options for slowing up Doncic, rolling out Leonard, George, Patrick Beverley and versatile wing Nicolas Batum in hopes of keeping the hobbled shooting guard out of rhythm.
Whoever has been on Hardaway – Reggie Jackson, George, Leonard – isn’t giving him any clean air on the outside, playing with their heels above the 3-point line and forcing Dallas’ sharp-shooting guard to put the ball on the floor. That’s panned out into 5-of-22 shooting from Hardaway, including 4 for 10 from deep, in the last two efforts.
PREDICTION: Tim Hardaway Jr. Points Under 16.5 (-102)
Mavericks vs Clippers betting card
- Los Angeles -7 (-110)
- Over 217 (-110)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Points Under 16.5 (-102)
Picks made on 6/1/2021 at 2:40 p.m. ET
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