The Minnesota Timberwolves found a quality clutch offense on Friday night, an absolute shock from one of the worst clutch offenses in the NBA this regular season.
The assumption heading into the playoffs may have been to trust the Los Angeles Lakers in a close game thanks to Luka Doncic and LeBron James, but not even a 38-point double-double from James could hold off Minnesota.
My Lakers vs. Timberwolves props and NBA picks do not expect LeBron to repeat that performance while Minnesota tries desperately to avoid another close finish.
Best Lakers vs Timberwolves props
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McDaniels o5.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365) -
James u24.5 points (-120 at bet365) - DiVincenzo o2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
Lakers vs Timberwolves player props for April 27
Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
As these NBA Playoffs slow down — Unders have cashed in 19 of 26 playoff games entering Sunday — the Minnesota Timberwolves are still scoring. They have cleared their team total in two of the three games in this series, falling short in Game 2 in large part because they shot 5-for-25 from deep.
As long as Minnesota is pushing the pace and threatening totals, then some Overs on props are still tenable. Expecting Jaden McDaniels to crash the boards remains among them.
He has remembered his ideal form in this series, one where he attacks the hoop rather than lives in the corner. McDaniels may someday be a quality 3-point shooter, but that day is not today. His most effective decision from the corner is to drive along the baseline, where his length makes it impossible for any Lakers defenders to protect both sides of the rim.
He grabbed only five rebounds in Game 3 because he finished so well at the hoop; he did not create as many offensive rebounding chances for himself. However, he remains a bigger presence than anyone in L.A.’s rotation.
Lakers center Jaxson Hayes has yet to play 10 minutes in a game in this series. He is a complete non-factor. For all the talk about Rudy Gobert being played off the court, that is only a reality because Minnesota has played Hayes off the court.
Beyond him, McDaniels is taller and longer than anyone in a Lakers uniform. After his success in Game 3, McDaniels should continue to bend some of the game to his will. It would be ambitious to think that that will show itself in another 30-point performance, but an afternoon on the glass would set up the Timberwolves for a 3-1 series lead.
LeBron James Under 24.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Sitting in the upper bowl of Target Center on Friday night was a conflicting experience. Not even the most hardened and bitter Timberwolves fans could scoff at the show LeBron James offered, scoring 38 points while hitting 5-of-9 threes. The greatest player of his generation resorted to heat checks, and he hit them.
But that was a 41-minute effort that ended in a loss for the Los Angeles Lakers. That game ended at nearly 11:30 local time. Game 4 tips off just 39 hours later. That is a tough turnaround for anyone. That is an especially tough turnaround for a 40-year-old.
That might sound harsh, and if anyone could make it look foolish, it's LeBron. But just be realistic: is LeBron going to show every ounce of energy again today?
Even as he poured in points, James shied away from playmaking. He has to pick and choose his moments nowadays. Game 4 may not be that moment at all.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
Donte DiVincenzo is just 3-for-15 from deep in this series, but he kept shooting in Game 3, and that provides the logic behind this prop bet.
DiVincenzo went 2-for-8 on Friday night, playing a series-high 30 minutes. Do not expect DiVincenzo to stay cold. He has been too consistent and too prolific this season.
Since returning from a turf toe injury after the All-Star break, DiVincenzo hit 44.7% of his 3-pointers, attempting 7.2 of them per game. He cleared this plus-money prop in 15 of 22 games.
And, again, Minnesota is still scoring in this series. The Timberwolves team total of 105.5 is too low today, and that is in part because their shooting will come around at some point. Some confidence may be restored by having a 2-1 series lead. Minnesota does not need to play with stress this afternoon.
DiVincenzo feeling loose on his shots should lead to plenty of them. And if he is chucking with frequency, he will hit at least a few of them.
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