It's the last week of the NBA regular season, where motivation — or lack thereof — is the name of the game. Some teams are battling for playoff position and momentum, while others have visions of lottery balls dancing through their heads.
We get such a contrast Wednesday night when the Indiana Pacers host the New York Knicks, and bettors can look to the different directions these teams are trending in for extra value in tonight's matchup.
As Indiana goes through the motions, I break down my best NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs. Pacers on April 5.
(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Wednesday afternoon's announcement that Jalen Brunson will sit vs. Indiana.)
Knicks vs Pacers best odds
Knicks vs Pacers picks and predictions
The Pacers put up an impressive fight for the first part of this season, but variance came around, and as the East got its act together, they couldn't tread water. Now eliminated from playoff contention and purely with eyes on next season, the bottom has come out completely.
Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are shut down. Buddy Hield and T.J. McConnell are seeing bench run. Jordan Nwora is king.
The mission in Indiana is simple: Get the youngsters reps and be totally okay with losing. Which is on brand, because there's been a lot of losing. The Pacers are 1-5 straight up in their last six games, with those losses coming by an average of 16.8 points. Over the past 10 games, they're posting a hilariously bad 123.7 defensive rating — hold that thought, we're coming back to it.
Enter the New York Knicks, who despite being very much locked into their playoff seed, have everything to fight for. The Bockers are set for what will be a hellacious first-round tilt with the Cavaliers, a rugged defensive juggernaut of a 4-seed that owns the second-best net rating in the entire NBA.
They'll want to ensure they're firing on all cylinders (especially in the absence of Julius Randle), and really, this is a Tom Thibodeau squad — it won't be allowed to take its foot off the pedal.
New York's been in great form of late, winning four straight while posting the third-best offense in the league over the past 10 games. It dropped 130 points in regulation on the NBA's slowest and best defensive team last weekend. It's a hungry dog getting fresh chum dangled in front of it tonight.
The Pacers, as presently constructed, being terrible on defense is no fluke, and likely by design, as they look to maximize lotto equity. They're trotting out a bunch of young dudes who have relatively little experience together, particularly against starter-level lineups.
They're also pushing that reverse edge, at the league's fourth-fastest tempo the past 10 games (relative to seventh on the season), and the Knicks, while normally a deliberate team, shouldn't mind much at all if the Pacers don't, um, pace themselves. The faster Indiana plays, the more chances New York gets to pry this game open, which given these teams' present forms, is more a matter of when than if.
And with just how bad Indy's defense has been, it's the Knicks' team total of 120.5 we're targeting. Give any competent team enough cracks at a resistance this sad, and it will pile up points.
My best bet: Knicks team total Over 120.5 (-115 at bet365)
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Knicks vs Pacers spread analysis
I honestly don't hate the Knicks spread in this game either, and was close to making it my best bet, but I think the slightly better value lies in isolating the Pacers' deplorable defense.
Indiana's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games, its last five losses all by double digits. The defense has been legendarily bad, and there isn't enough offensive cohesion or overall talent to trade blows with opponents who land them that easily.
Guys like Andrew Nembhard have shown flashes, but feed him to a pair of hungry on-ball pests like Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley, and it's tough to see Indiana suddenly making this the close game, against a team that's as motivated as a playoff-seed-locked unit can be.
This line — sitting at 8.5 as of Wednesday morning — has seen some wonky movement and might be headed toward 9. I'd feel fairly comfortable hitting this anywhere under double digits.
Knicks vs Pacers Over/Under analysis
Given that I like the Knicks to shred the Pacers' defense the Over also seems like the more practical play, but we'll call this one more of a lean, simply because I'm skeptical of the Pacers holding up their end of the deal, especially against a high-pressure defensive backcourt.
It bears noting that the Pacers only managed to put up 104 points on the Mavericks last week, who can't seem to guard anyone. While they've caught a couple of teams off guard in the season's garbage time, this is a bench unit masquerading as a starting lineup, and a Thibs team won't be the one to fall asleep.
The Knicks are 41-36-2 to the Over this season, and have topped the total in five of their past seven, but it takes two to tango in these instances.
Assuming Indiana will score 110 or so points in this game seems speculative. I'm obviously more comfortable backing the Knicks to be the ones driving this total.
Knicks vs Pacers betting trend to know
The Knicks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Pacers.
Knicks vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MSG, Bally Indiana |
