Jimmy Butler laughed first in his ongoing war with the state of Minnesota.
Butler and the Golden State Warriors came into the Target Center and took Game 1, and "Playoff Jimmy" played a big part in that win — scoring 20 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, and dishing out eight assists over 41 minutes of floor time.
What does he have in store for Game 2 tonight? Here are my favorite Jimmy Butler props and NBA picks to target for the Warriors vs. Timberwolves on May 8.
Jimmy Butler player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jimmy Butler best bet
Under 24.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Butler certainly stuffed the stat sheet in Game 1, but his 20-point performance still fell short of his scoring prop of 22.5 O/U.
His Game 2 scoring total ticks up to 24.5 points with Stephen Curry out due to injury — a logical adjustment based on Butler's increased role in the offense.
However, things aren’t that cut and dry.
With the Warriors walking out of the series opener with a win, it’s “mission accomplished” for head coach Steve Kerr. Most teams aim to split the first two games of a series if they’re playing on the road, knowing they’ll have the edge at home in Games 3 and 4.
With that in mind — and a hefty 10.5-point spread in favor of the Timberwolves — should Golden State fall behind quickly in this contest, Kerr will not hesitate to cut his losses.
He’ll save his starters the wear and tear — especially after watching the face of the franchise go down in Game 1 — and concede the victory but know he has the inside track with the series swinging back to the Bay Area.
He did a similar bailout in a blowout loss to Houston in Game 5 of Round 1, yanking Butler & Co. in the third quarter and limiting his star forward to 25 minutes and eight points.
Now, betting Butler to go Under 24.5 points isn’t just hinging on the Dubs being fat and happy with the series split. Player projections for Game 2 aren’t as bullish on Butler as the oddsmakers’ total.
Game models range from 22.8 points to a low of 16.4, with some projections already considering the possibility of Kerr pulling the plug and protecting his players. Most models sit around 20 points, with my number coming out to just short of 21 points — if Butler logs his usual minutes.
He's still facing one of the best defenses in the NBA, playing pissed off ball and in front of a feverish crowd. Butler is also known to suffer a dip in scoring when it comes to postseason road games, averaging less than 20 points as a visitor during his playoff career.
Given that forecast, the Under 24.5 points should be priced around -250 rather than the -110 we find for this same result at bet365. The prop market is starting to move toward the Under, with sharper books showing the Under 24.5 points listed at -131.
If I'm wrong on this handicap, I'm going to be really wrong. But this is a prime spot to buy back market perception and inflated lines with a strong narrative for the Under.
Jimmy Butler same-game parlay
Under 24.5 points
Under 6.5 assists
Under 7.5 rebounds
I’m going all-in on Butler and the Dubs backing off in Game 2. But as mentioned above, his scoring projections don’t exceed the 25-point bar set with Curry out.
The projection floor on Butler assists is around four dimes, with all models coming in short of 6.5 assists. Again, this could be much shorter if Kerr bails.
Butler was busy on the boards in Game 1, and his rebounding forecasts sit between 5.0 and 7.3 for Game 2.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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