Jayson Tatum Odds and Props: More Possessions, More Rebounding Opportunities

While Jayson Tatum's scoring prop is properly priced, his rebounding prop hasn't totally adjusted to an increased workload on the glass. We break it all down in our Jayson Tatum prop picks below.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
May 21, 2024 • 15:05 ET • 4 min read
Jayson Tatum Boston Celtics NBA
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In the metronome that was the Boston Celtics’ season — the only team in the NBA to have not lost three straight games in either the regular season or the postseason after the Timberwolves dropped three straight to the Nuggets last round — Jayson Tatum found one spot in particular to shine: against the Indiana Pacers.

In four games against the second-fastest offense in the NBA, Tatum responded by scoring at least 30 points in each game. Accordingly, his points prop tonight is set at 29.5.

However, Tatum also excelled on the boards against Indiana, and his rebounds prop is not skewed properly for that reality. Let’s trust the perennial All-Star’s all-around impact in our NBA picks and find some Jayson Tatum odds to back in our Pacers vs. Celtics predictions below.

Jayson Tatum prop picks for May 21

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Jayson Tatum best bet

Jayson Tatum pick: Over 10.5 rebounds

Some of Jayson Tatum’s success in the box score against the Indiana Pacers was a direct result of their... uhhh... pace.

Tatum played 74 games this regular season. In 70 of them, the Boston Celtics' pace came out to 96 possessions per game. In four against Indiana, that pace rose to 100.8.

That alone does not explain Tatum averaging 11 rebounds per game against the Pacers — with three of those games featuring a dozen or more rebounds — while grabbing just 7.9 in his other 70 games, but it does shed some light on it.

Other factors for that bump would simply be Indiana’s lineup lacking any true big besides Myles Turner, and he spends plenty of time on the perimeter, anyway. Tatum is effectively as much a big man as Obi Toppin is, even if an inch shorter.

Tonight’s rebounding prop on Tatum may seem like it has already risen to the levels he regularly reached against the Pacers, but more accurately, it has simply risen to his playoff penchant. Tatum has averaged 10.4 rebounds in 10 games this postseason, clearing this prop in six of his last eight games, not to mention 10 boards in the closeout of the Cavaliers.

An additional bump should be added to any Tatum expectations simply given how Indiana will give him more opportunities to snag a few more boards.

Prop: Jayson Tatum Over 10.5 rebounds (+114 at DraftKings)

Jayson Tatum same-game parlay

Jayson Tatum Over 10.5 rebounds

Jayson Tatum Under 5.5 assists

Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 threes

In the modern NBA, most assists come off made 3-pointers. The Celtics ranked No. 26 in the NBA in the percentage of threes coming off assists, and still, 79.6% of their made 3-pointers were assisted. With 47.2% of their shots coming from deep in the regular season, the potential assists were frequent.

That 3-point attempt frequency has not dropped for Boston in the postseason, at 47.1% through 10 games, but it's about to.

In the final seven weeks of the regular season, Indiana ranked No. 1 in the NBA in preventing opponents’ looks from deep, allowing 3-point attempts on only 33.1% of opposing shots. That has climbed through 13 postseason games, but just to 36.5%.

The Celtics will have fewer looks from deep tonight, which should mean Tatum has fewer assists and, obviously, fewer looks of his own. Not to mention, he has hit more than two threes in just one game this postseason, going 3-of-7 in the series-ending win against the Cavs.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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