Heat vs Pistons Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Can Cunningham Cut Through Miami Defense?

Cade Cunningham has stepped it up in his sophomore season, but can he guide a poor Pistons offense to success today? And how will the shorthanded Heat fare on the other end of the floor? Our NBA betting picks sense a rockfight developing.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Mar 17, 2024 • 10:26 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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It’s been a difficult season for the Miami Heat faithful with the perennial playoff team sitting eighth in the East and potentially needing to win in the NBA Play-In Tournament to reach the postseason. 

To make matters worse, the Heat are dealing with several key injuries right now as they head back to Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons for the second time in three days. Despite potentially being down Jimmy Butler, the NBA odds have Miami as a 7.5-point road favorite in what should be a low-scoring showdown.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Pistons on Sunday, March 17.

Heat vs Pistons odds

Heat vs Pistons predictions

At 34 years old, age may finally be catching up to Jimmy Butler. The six-time All-Star has already missed 19 games this season and could miss his 20th against the Detroit Pistons with a foot injury. The Miami Heat star is listed as questionable in a game Erik Spoelstra will already be without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, and Nikola Jovic.

Whether Butler plays or not may not matter in what could be a game short on points regardless with Miami’s inconsistencies on offense this season and the Pistons’ poor matchup against this mighty Heat defense.

While Cade Cunningham is having a breakout season, Detroit remains one of the worst teams in the NBA with an offense that just can’t sustain success. It’s putting up the ninth-fewest points per game in the NBA (112.1) and ranks 25th in offensive rating (111.2).

It’s been one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league while hitting the second-fewest per game (11.3) and shooting 35.4% from behind the arc, eighth-worst in the NBA. On top of it all, one of Detroit’s biggest issues this season has been turnovers.

Monty Williams’ squad leads the NBA in turnovers per game with 15.5 and has its backcourt of Cunningham and Jaden Ivey combining for six per outing. Inconsistent shooting mixed with turnovers usually isn’t a recipe for scoring, no matter how many young lottery picks you deploy. 

While Cunningham is putting up 22.3 points per game himself, he’s dealing with a knee injury that could slow him down against an impressive Heat defense. Miami may be ageing, but it’s still one of the feistiest teams in the NBA, holding teams to the fifth-fewest points per game (109.6) and ranking ninth in defensive rating (113.2).

Spoelstra’s team is giving up the seventh-fewest field goals per game this season (40.5) and teams are averaging just 86.2 shots against it, third-fewest in the NBA. The Heat have been particularly impressive limiting opportunities inside the arc, where three-time All-Star Bam Adebayo anchors the defense.

The Heat have allowed just the fourth-fewest 2-pointers per game this season (27.3) all while playing some serious perimeter defense and limiting free-throw opportunities. Miami holds opponents to the ninth-worst 3-point percentage in the NBA (36%) and only puts teams on the charity stripe 19.8 times per game, fourth-fewest in the league.

To make things tougher on Detroit’s offense, Cunningham and center Jalen Duren are going to have the kitchen sink thrown at them trying to generate offense. The Heat allow the sixth-fewest points per game to point guards (23.34) and the second-fewest to centers (19.93).

Luckily for the Pistons, their defense won’t have to see Herro and maybe won’t even have to deal with Butler. For as bad as Detroit is this season, it’s been decent on the perimeter and allows only 11.9 three-pointers per game, seventh-fewest in the NBA.

That bodes well for Cunningham & Co., especially when considering that this Heat offense has had its own struggles this season. Miami is putting up just 110.1 points per game (27th in the NBA) and ranks 21st in offensive rating (113.8).

It’s been one of the slower scoring attacks in the league, too. The Heat shoot and make the second-fewest field goals per game in the NBA and are hitting just 46.5% of those shots, 22nd in the league.

When these two teams played on March 15, offense was hard to come by as they combined for just 203 points with the game total set at 217.

My best bet: Under 215.5 (-115 at PROLINE+)

Heat vs Pistons same-game parlay

Under 215.5

Pistons +7.5

For as poorly as the Pistons have played this season, they do have the talent to keep this game close with a banged up Heat squad. Without Herro, Miami isn’t nearly as scary on offense, especially with Butler potentially playing hurt.

Cunningham and Duren should be capable of putting enough pressure on the Heat’s defense to keep this low-scoring game close.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Heat vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis

Even with Herro out and Butler’s status up in the air, the Heat opened as a 7.5-point favorite against the lowly Pistons. The line has since shifted down at most books to 6.5 given Butler’s injury status. 

Both the Heat and Pistons have struggled to cover on a consistent basis this season. Miami is 32-33-1 ATS and just 2-5 in its last seven while Detroit is 33-32-1, but 4-2 in its last six. The Pistons have covered as underdogs in two of their three previous matchups with the Heat.

With Miami and Detroit struggling on offense, the game total opened no higher than 215.5, with most books coming down to 214.5. Few teams have been a better Under bet this season than the Heat. Miami is 42-24 betting the Under and has hit it in five straight games. Detroit is 32-33-1 betting the Under, but 12-3 since Feb. 10. 

Heat vs Pistons betting trend to know

The Heat have hit the Under in 50 of their last 75 games (+22.50 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Pistons.

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Heat vs Pistons game info

Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Date: Sunday, March 17, 2024
Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sun, Bally Detroit

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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

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