It’s been a difficult season for the Miami Heat faithful with the perennial playoff team sitting eighth in the East and potentially needing to win in the NBA Play-In Tournament to reach the postseason.
To make matters worse, the Heat are dealing with several key injuries right now as they head back to Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons for the second time in three days. Despite potentially being down Jimmy Butler, the NBA odds have Miami as a 7.5-point road favorite in what should be a low-scoring showdown.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Pistons on Sunday, March 17.
Heat vs Pistons odds
Heat vs Pistons predictions
At 34 years old, age may finally be catching up to Jimmy Butler. The six-time All-Star has already missed 19 games this season and could miss his 20th against the Detroit Pistons with a foot injury. The Miami Heat star is listed as questionable in a game Erik Spoelstra will already be without Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, and Nikola Jovic.
Whether Butler plays or not may not matter in what could be a game short on points regardless with Miami’s inconsistencies on offense this season and the Pistons’ poor matchup against this mighty Heat defense.
While Cade Cunningham is having a breakout season, Detroit remains one of the worst teams in the NBA with an offense that just can’t sustain success. It’s putting up the ninth-fewest points per game in the NBA (112.1) and ranks 25th in offensive rating (111.2).
It’s been one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league while hitting the second-fewest per game (11.3) and shooting 35.4% from behind the arc, eighth-worst in the NBA. On top of it all, one of Detroit’s biggest issues this season has been turnovers.
Monty Williams’ squad leads the NBA in turnovers per game with 15.5 and has its backcourt of Cunningham and Jaden Ivey combining for six per outing. Inconsistent shooting mixed with turnovers usually isn’t a recipe for scoring, no matter how many young lottery picks you deploy.
While Cunningham is putting up 22.3 points per game himself, he’s dealing with a knee injury that could slow him down against an impressive Heat defense. Miami may be ageing, but it’s still one of the feistiest teams in the NBA, holding teams to the fifth-fewest points per game (109.6) and ranking ninth in defensive rating (113.2).
Spoelstra’s team is giving up the seventh-fewest field goals per game this season (40.5) and teams are averaging just 86.2 shots against it, third-fewest in the NBA. The Heat have been particularly impressive limiting opportunities inside the arc, where three-time All-Star Bam Adebayo anchors the defense.
The Heat have allowed just the fourth-fewest 2-pointers per game this season (27.3) all while playing some serious perimeter defense and limiting free-throw opportunities. Miami holds opponents to the ninth-worst 3-point percentage in the NBA (36%) and only puts teams on the charity stripe 19.8 times per game, fourth-fewest in the league.
To make things tougher on Detroit’s offense, Cunningham and center Jalen Duren are going to have the kitchen sink thrown at them trying to generate offense. The Heat allow the sixth-fewest points per game to point guards (23.34) and the second-fewest to centers (19.93).
Luckily for the Pistons, their defense won’t have to see Herro and maybe won’t even have to deal with Butler. For as bad as Detroit is this season, it’s been decent on the perimeter and allows only 11.9 three-pointers per game, seventh-fewest in the NBA.
That bodes well for Cunningham & Co., especially when considering that this Heat offense has had its own struggles this season. Miami is putting up just 110.1 points per game (27th in the NBA) and ranks 21st in offensive rating (113.8).
It’s been one of the slower scoring attacks in the league, too. The Heat shoot and make the second-fewest field goals per game in the NBA and are hitting just 46.5% of those shots, 22nd in the league.
When these two teams played on March 15, offense was hard to come by as they combined for just 203 points with the game total set at 217.
My best bet: Under 215.5 (-115 at PROLINE+)
Heat vs Pistons same-game parlay
Under 215.5
Pistons +7.5
For as poorly as the Pistons have played this season, they do have the talent to keep this game close with a banged up Heat squad. Without Herro, Miami isn’t nearly as scary on offense, especially with Butler potentially playing hurt.
Cunningham and Duren should be capable of putting enough pressure on the Heat’s defense to keep this low-scoring game close.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
Even with Herro out and Butler’s status up in the air, the Heat opened as a 7.5-point favorite against the lowly Pistons. The line has since shifted down at most books to 6.5 given Butler’s injury status.
Both the Heat and Pistons have struggled to cover on a consistent basis this season. Miami is 32-33-1 ATS and just 2-5 in its last seven while Detroit is 33-32-1, but 4-2 in its last six. The Pistons have covered as underdogs in two of their three previous matchups with the Heat.
With Miami and Detroit struggling on offense, the game total opened no higher than 215.5, with most books coming down to 214.5. Few teams have been a better Under bet this season than the Heat. Miami is 42-24 betting the Under and has hit it in five straight games. Detroit is 32-33-1 betting the Under, but 12-3 since Feb. 10.
Heat vs Pistons betting trend to know
The Heat have hit the Under in 50 of their last 75 games (+22.50 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Pistons.
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Heat vs Pistons game info
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, March 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sun, Bally Detroit |
Heat vs Pistons latest injuries
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