Hawks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Young Handles the Heat

The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off Tuesday night with the Atlanta Hawks visiting the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference side of the bracket.

Miami, which finished No. 8 in the East, stumbled toward the finish line to fall into in the play-in mix with a three-game losing skid at the end of March. Since then, the Heat have won four of their final five games of the regular season (3-2 ATS) and boast a 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) count in head-to-head matchups with the Hawks.

Atlanta backed into the play-in with two straight losses to conference powers Boston and Philadelphia, and have struggled away from home in the back half of the schedule, going 3-6 SU (4-5 ATS) as a visitor since the All-Star break. That record includes a pair of losses in South Beach.

I break down the point spread and total for tonight’s play-in tournament tilt, and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Heat on April 11.

Hawks vs Heat best odds

Hawks vs Heat picks and predictions

The Miami Heat have been the boogeymen living under Trae Young’s bed, and the media is not letting basketball bettors forget that heading into tonight’s play-in tournament game.

Young averages 21.4 points per game against Miami for his career, which is a significant downtick compared to his average output of 25.5 points against the other 28 NBA teams. His shooting touch flops from 43% to 40% against the Heat, and everyone recalls Young’s struggles against Erik Spoelstra’s defense in last year’s playoffs (15.4 ppg on 31% shooting).

Miami got the better of Young again this season, with the Hawks' high-scoring point guard putting forth efforts of 22, 24, and eight points in their first three matchups of the 2022-23 season, shooting a collective 12-for-42 from the field in those games (28.6%). Young did manage to get the last laugh against the Heat (not in wins but personal production), scoring 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting in a two-point loss to Miami on March 6.

While Miami has done a fine job slowing down the Hawks' star for his career, the Heat are not the same defense that clamped down on Atlanta in those past seasons. Miami has fallen from fifth to 22nd in defensive rating since the All-Star break, and has allowed visitors to score almost 118 points against on 50.5% shooting over the last dozen games inside the Kaseya Center.

Young has averaged 24.6 points since that last meeting with the Heat, but has seen his scoring outputs shrink in the home stretch, posting only 21 average points in his final 10 games (attempting just 14.5 FG attempts) while staying below his scoring prop in six of those contests, facing lofty point totals ranging from 25.5 to as high as 28.5 points.

Young has offset that scoring passivity with his ability to create chances for others. His assists spiked in the final games of the regular season, dishing out double-digits in dimes in three straight and five of his last six showings, but he’s still surpassed 24 points in three of those games.

Despite the “Ghost of South Beach Past” haunting him (as well as trade rumors and reported bad locker room blood), I have Young projected for at least 26 points in this play-in tournament opener, which is more than enough to get Over Trae’s modest point prop of 24.5 points (Over -130).

His assist prop for tonight is 9.5 with the Under shaded heavily (-150) despite his outpouring in dimes the past three games (20, 16, 12 assists). His projections call for a downtick in those passes compared to those recent assist results, so we’ll see more shots from Young than his modest attempts toward the end of the season.

My best bet: Young Over 24.5 points (-120)

Hawks vs Heat spread analysis

The play-in picture in the Eastern Conference has been set in stone since the weekend, with Miami opening as a 5.5-point home favorite last Sunday. That line has since slimmed to as low as Heat -4.5 as of Tuesday morning.

The Heat are a tough task on their own floor, boasting an 8-4 SU record inside Kaseya Center since the All-Star break, but have produced a 6-6 ATS mark in that span with a ho-hum net rating of +0.3 in those dozen home stands.

Miami is a completely different offense in its own gym, where it averaged 118.2 points since the break versus just 106.1 on the road in that span. The Heat boasted scores of 117 and 130 in a pair of home victories over the Hawks in early March. Miami went 1-1 ATS in those wins, closing as -2.5 and -3 chalk.

Atlanta also sees a significant split between home and away results, scoring almost 10 fewer points away from home since the All-Star break. The Hawks’ perimeter shooting sees the biggest downturn in foreign arenas, with the team hitting two fewer triples and shooting just 33.6% from distance compared to better than 38% at home.

The Hawks' offense continues to counter a dreadful defense that ranks out 25th in advanced rating since the break, and allows home teams to enjoy an average of 119.3 points against over the nine road stops in the home stretch of the schedule. Atlanta boasts a net rating of -1.4 in those away contests.

Hawks vs Heat Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for Tuesday’s play-in game hit the board at 227.5 points, and has bounced between lows of 226.5 and highs of 228.5, where it sits at most books as of this morning.

The two matchups between the Hawks and Heat in Miami in early March closed at 227 and 230.5 points, respectively, with the teams staying Under the low number (117-109) and going Over the higher total (130-128). These Southeast Division rivals split the total results in their four head-to-head games this season.

The Heat enter the play-in tournament on a five-game Over run and have been a solid Over bet since the All-Star break at 14-9 O/U (61% Overs), including a 9-3 O/U count as hosts in those games thanks to the homecourt scoring surge.

However, this Over trend has more to do with Miami’s defense going AWOL since the All-Star break. The Heat were best known for their defensive intensity but have since seen that dwindle, with a fifth-ranked pre-break defensive rating of 111.2 ballooning to 117.1 (22nd) since the annual hiatus. Miami has allowed 113.6 points against over the last 23 outings – more than five points higher than pre-break results.

The Hawks' high-octane offense and dreadful defense has naturally made them one of the better Over plays on the season, owning a 47-35 O/U record overall (57% Overs) with a 25-16 O/U clip on the road (61%). Atlanta also enters the postseason on an Over run, with a 4-0-1 O/U count in its final five games of the regular season.

Hawks vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is 7-0 in the Heat's last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.

Hawks vs Heat game info

Hawks vs Heat key injuries

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