The struggling Miami Heat try to shake a recent funk when they visit the capital city on Super Bowl Sunday to take on the Washington Wizards.
The Wiz are clearly happy to tank, but is Miami able to take that win? My Heat vs. Wizards predictions and NBA picks expect what the books expect: a comfortable Heat win.
Heat vs Wizards prediction
Heat vs Wizards best bet: Heat -11 (-110)
The Washington Wizards played last night and got ripped 127-113 by the Nets. They're just 3-5 against the spread playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Defense continues to be a problem for the Wizards, who rank second-last in the NBA in points allowed at 122 per contest.
This roster is a little in shambles, too. Most notably, leading scorer Alex Sarr (ankle) and leading set-up man Kyshawn George (knee) missed yesterday's game and are a game-time decision. They are two of nine players who currently occupy the injured list, with seven sitting out against the Nets.
The Miami Heat are a cool 4-2 ATS as a road favorite, but leading scorer Norman Powell (hand) and Bam Adebayo (hip) are on the injured list and listed as game-time decisions.
The Heat are a Top-10 scoring defense, but they haven’t looked it lately. They’ve lost four of their last six, and have surrendered at least 125 points in three of those losses.
Miami has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, and all of them have been blowouts, winning by 12+ points in each. The Wiz won the last game they played, though, surviving a 1-point win.
Normally, I’d lean on the home team and the points, but this Washington team feels like a compilation of promising talent that can’t be woven together by injured stars Anthony Davis and Trae Young.
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Heat vs Wizards same-game parlay
The good news is that the books have Powell listed in the props, which means he must be close to returning. He’s coming off a 24-point game against New Orleans, and Powell has gone for 20+ in three straight games.
Alex Sarr will do damage for the Wiz against this struggling Miami defense that could be without Adebayo.
Heat vs Wizards SGP
- Heat -11
- Norman Powell Over 22.5 points
- Alex Sarr Over 16.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Sarr strikes on Super Bowl Sunday!
Keyonte George has lost his jumper in February, shooting just 1-for-5 from 3-point range over three games. Miami isn’t the exact get-right team, as they’re sixth in the league in 3-point shooting defense.
Miami guard Davion Mitchell has had 7+ assists just four times in the last 11 games, and while he’s had 8+ assists in back-to-back games against the Wizards, that’s too small a sample size to put some money on.
Heat vs Wizards SGP
- Heat -11
- Norman Powell Over 22.5 points
- Alex Sarr Over 16.5 points
- Keyonte George Under 1.5 threes
- Davion Mitchell Under 6.5 assists
Heat vs Wizards odds
- Spread: Heat -11 | Wizards +11
- Moneyline: Heat -474 | Wizards +380
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Heat vs Wizards betting trend to know
The Wizards have lost 40 of their last 41 games on the second night of a back-to-back. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Wizards.
How to watch Heat vs Wizards
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Sunday, February 8, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Sun, Monumental SN |
Heat vs Wizards latest injuries
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