The Atlanta Hawks loudly dusted the New York Knicks in their first-round series, and now meet the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 2.
But, just how tough a test they'll face remains to be seen, with Sixers superstar center Joel Embiid's status still up in the air for Game 1.
With a large cloud of uncertainty hanging over the NBA betting odds for this game, we'll be doing our best to break down the matchup. Here are our Hawks vs. 76ers picks and predictions for Sunday, June 6.
Hawks vs 76ers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, June 6, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Hawks vs 76ers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia went up as a 4-point favorite in the wee hours of Thursday morning at FanDuel, dipped straight to -2 a few hours later, then slowly crept back to -4 on game-day morning. As of 12:45 p.m. ET today, shortly before tipoff, the 76ers are up to -5 while attracting 73 percent of spread bets and 75 percent of spread money. The total opened at 221, dipped to 220 and is now 220.5, with 69 percent of bets/73 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameHawks vs 76ers series odds
Hawks: +160
76ers: -180
Hawks vs 76ers betting preview
Injuries
Hawks: Cam Reddish SF (Out)
76ers: Joel Embiid C (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. 76ers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Embiid's status in this game means everything. Philly's big man would have very possibly won the MVP award had he stayed healthy all year, and was likely the best two-way player in the entire league this season.
As such, keep a very close eye on injury reports before betting on this game, unless you're a cheesesteak faithful, or feel like leaving this up to chance.
At present, we need to proceed under the assumption that Embiid won't be playing in Game 1. A torn meniscus, even a partial one, is no joke, and the 76ers' franchise player has a fairly frail and caution-worthy track record. Philadelphia can claw out of an 0-1 hole with a more-rested Embiid, and they also have far more important long-term implications to consider.
With Embiid out, it's tough to see how Atlanta doesn't have an edge, even against the Sixers' home-court excellence and raucous Philly crowd.
Ben Simmons is arguably the NBA's best perimeter lockdown artist, and will be very tough for Trae Young to create space against. But Young just torched an elite defense for 29/10 in the opening round, and Atlanta's corps of backup scorers brings a lot to the table.
Simmons himself faces a minus matchup, with elite rim protector Clint Capela lurking in the post, and potentially not having to worry about helping off Embiid. Since Simmons is tragically allergic to shots outside the restricted area, it should be tough for him to find consistent buckets and help Tobias Harris fill Embiid's scoring void.
Philly is still a strong defensive unit without Embiid, and can keep themselves in this game on that pillar alone. But, ultimately, ATL is just far deeper and has more offensive punch.
This is a Hawks team that wasn't healthy all year and underwent a midseason coaching swap. They appeared to be collectively hitting their stride as they took control of the Knicks series, and it's entirely possible they haven't realized their ceiling yet.
With Embiid's status in doubt, and the odds giving ATL points, we need to back them.
PREDICTION: Atlanta +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This is a tricky total to handicap for a number of reasons. The first, obviously, is Embiid's possible absence, which dramatically impacts both Philadelphia's ability to score and prevent Atlanta from doing so.
You also might as well throw any results from the first round out the window, after these two teams explored the very limits of the NBA's pace spectrum. The Hawks and Knicks routinely enabled each other's snail-paced tendencies, while Philadelphia got into an Over-fest with the Wizards, who habitually play like they're deep in the throes of a speed trip.
Neither of these teams played at a Top-10 pace in the regular season, and Philly has every possible reason to slow this game and maximize its defensive edge.
While Doc Rivers' recent playoff track record demands skepticism, he's no idiot, and knows his team has no chance of straight-up outscoring Atlanta without Embiid. Enforcing more of a defensive tempo not only lets Philly play to its strengths, but maximize the variance by giving the better team (which Atlanta definitely is if Embiid sits) fewer possessions to inflict an edge.
Atlanta, for its part, is the slower of the two teams, and is probably just fine to let Young and his band of long-range triggermen pick Philly apart in the halfcourt. If this game's pace does slow, it seems unlikely the 76ers will be able to help drive the total much without Embiid's instant offense.
PREDICTION: Under 220.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Given Embiid's status, it feels fairly safe to assume that Tobias Harris will be the Sixers' first option, either with Joel sidelined or playing limited minutes and not operating as comfortably as he normally does.
Harris' usage will only be exacerbated by Simmons, likely walled off from his preferred diet of looks.
Harris averaged 25 ppg against Washington in the first round, and even if this game figures to be slower and more defense-minded, we like him to top his 24.5 total with all the additional looks he's sure to see.
PREDICTION: Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points (-107)
Hawks vs 76ers betting card
- Atlanta +2.5 (-110)
- Under 220.5 (-110)
- Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points (-107)
Picks made on 6/5/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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