The Los Angeles Clippers forced their Western quarterfinal NBA Playoffs series with the Dallas Mavericks to seven games. The only issue now is that this decisive finale is back in L.A.
Homecourt has been a handicap in this opening round set, with the road team not only winning but covering the NBA betting spread in each of the first six games in this series. Dallas comes in as a 6.5-point road underdog for Sunday’s showdown in the Staples Center.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Clippers on June 6.
Mavericks vs Clippers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, June 6, 2021
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Mavericks vs Clippers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFollowing their Game 6 win, the Clippers landed on DraftKings' odds board as a 5.5-point favorite late Friday night, then spent the weekend bouncing between -6 and -6.5. As of 2 p.m. ET on game day, the Clippers are -6.5. However, the Mavericks are attracting 78 percent of spread bets and 74 percent of spread money. The total opened at 215, dropped as low as 210 and is now 211, with 78 percent of bets on the Over and 56 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Clippers series odds
Mavericks: +225
Clippers: -275
Mavericks vs Clippers betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: J.J. Reddick G (Out).
Clippers: Serge Ibaka F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 16-5-1 in Clippers’ last 22 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This series has taken many forms and many faces as both teams scramble to adjust to the game before. But when you break it all down, this Round 1 slugfest has come down to the Clippers’ top two players vs. the Mavericks’ top two players: Paul George and Kawhi Leonard versus Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Los Angeles’ dynamic duo was sensational in Game 6’s 104-97 win that forced this do-or-die matchup, with Paul putting in 20 points and 13 rebounds and Leonard leaving it all on the floor with 45 points and disruptive defensive work. However, those two stars played close to 88 combined minutes on Friday and have a tight turnaround and early tip-off for Game 7 (3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT) on Sunday.
The key for Los Angeles could be simply surviving until the fourth quarter, either keeping Doncic somewhat subdued through 36 minutes or staying within striking distance on the scoreboard. Since dropping the first two games at home, the Clippers are 3-1 SU and ATS and have won the final frame in each of those contests.
Los Angeles has outscored Dallas 109-79 in the fourth quarter over the last four games — an average of 7.5 points per game — and owns an offensive rating of 122.5 in those frames with a complementing defensive rating of 85.9 in the closing 12 minutes, checking the mighty Mavs to 4Q point totals of 20, 16, 21 and 22.
The backward home/away betting trend and Doncic’s incredible effort warrant a tip of the cap, and early money has jumped on the Mavs and the points in Game 7, with 76 percent of bets and 82 percent of money down on Dallas. However, this spread opened L.A. -6 and has climbed as high as -7 — a telling reverse line move in a winner-take-all finish.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The past three games of this series have stayed below the number, despite bookies making significant adjustments to the total. The Game 7 Over/Under has seen the biggest shakeup, hitting the board as high as 215 points and getting chopped down as low as 210 with early sharp play on the Under.
After a high-scoring start to the series, the Clippers have converted this quarterfinal set into a defensive grinder. The Mavericks have an advanced offensive rating of just 106.0 over the last four games, compared to 128.3 through the opening two wins, and the pace of the series has been the slowest of the opening round matchups.
The Clippers offense has been steady throughout, shooting 48.5 percent from the field for the series but unable to land knockout punches from beyond the arc. Los Angeles entered the postseason as the top 3-point shooting team in the land (41.1%) but has made just 35.4 percent of looks from distance in the playoffs, including a 10-for-34 performance from the perimeter in Game 6.
The 2021 NBA Playoffs have been profitable for Over bettors heading into Sunday, with a 23-19-1 O/U count. However, the bulk of those Under winners have come when bookies set the number sub-220. Heading into Game 7, playoff games with totals of 219.5 points or less are 6-10-1 O/U (62.5% Under) so far, so those diminutive numbers are posted for a reason.
You’re definitely not getting the best of the number here with the Under (with the O/U moving down five points), so keep that in mind and perhaps pass if you aren’t sold either way.
PREDICTION: Under 210 (-110)
Player prop pick
Reggie Jackson was the early star of Game 6, opening the game with 15 of his 25 total points in the first 24 minutes. Jackson has a total of 45 points the past two games and has been the rare 3-point threat, shooting 9 for 19 from deep in those outings — after going just 10 for 29 from 3-point land in the opening four games.
The Clippers leaned heavily on their starting five in Game 6 and will do the same again on Sunday. Jackson played 38 minutes on Friday and will have plenty of chances to get Over his points total of 14.5 in Game 7.
He’s scored 15 or more in five straight games and his energy will be a big difference as legs get tired in this tight turnaround in the finale of a grueling seven-game set.
PREDICTION: Reggie Jackson points Over 14.5 (-118)
Mavericks vs Clippers betting card
- Los Angeles -6.5 (-110)
- Under 210 (-110)
- Reggie Jackson points Over 14.5 (-118)
Picks made on 6/06/2021 at 7:58 a.m. ET
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