The Los Angeles Clippers aren’t the only ones needing to make adjustments heading into Game 3 of their Western Conference quarterfinal against the Dallas Mavericks.
With the Clippers dropping the first two games of the series as home favorites and heading to Dallas on Friday, the NBA betting spread for Game 3 opened with the Mavericks as slight home chalk. However, action jumped on L.A. early and forced a significant adjustment to Clippers -2. Those bettors are banking on Los Angeles to make needed changes and avoid a 0-3 hole on the road.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Mavericks on May 28.
Clippers vs Mavericks game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Friday, May 28, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Clippers vs Mavericks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles opened as a 1.5-point road underdog in Dallas after dropping the opening two games at home. But money pounded the Clippers and the points, flipping this spread on its ear and moving L.A. to -2.5 road chalk. The total for Game 3 hit the board at 221.5 points and money on the Under has slimmed this number to 219.5 points. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 55 percent of bets are on the Clippers with 62 percent of the money also riding on Los Angeles. About 88 percent of total wagers are on the Over for Game 3.
Check out the full line movement for this gameClippers vs Mavericks series odds
Clippers: +225
Mavericks: -290
Clippers vs Mavericks betting preview
Injuries
Clippers: None
Mavericks: J.J. Reddick G (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games while Los Angeles has gone 3-10 ATS in its last 13 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Having great one-on-one defenders isn’t enough for the Clippers, not with the way Luka Doncic is feeling right now. The Mavericks standout guard is once again torching L.A.’s best on-the-ball guys, shooting 51 percent from the field for 70 points, 17 rebounds and 18 assists in the opening two contests.
Does that mean tossing double-teams at Doncic and hoping Dallas’ supporting staff doesn’t hurt you? The issue for L.A. is that those “other guys” have been on fire in the opening two games.
Matchup nightmare and 7-foot strip-club aficionado Kristaps Porzingis continues to have success versus the Clippers frontcourt (20 points in Game 2) and Tim Hardaway Jr. is proving to be the real X-factor, posting efforts of 21 and 28 points in the first two games, entering Game 3 shooting 63 percent for the series, including an 11-for-17 mark from distance.
So, what’s Ty Lue supposed to do?
Some analysts are calling for a smaller lineup from the Clippers and a simple approach: dedication to nixing the Mavs’ role players with no help and true one-on-one coverage on Doncic. That means Luka goes bananas – like 40-plus points – but the rest of Dallas’ crew could go cold with closer attention. Portland took a similar approach versus Nikola Jokic in Game 1 of its series with Denver and it paid off – at least for that one game.
Doncic is no stranger to shouldering the scoring load versus the Clippers, having done it last postseason with less help around him. But this year, Porzingis is healthy, Dallas has more depth, and they’re holding a home-court edge instead of the neutral-site bubble of 2020.
We haven’t seen this Los Angeles team live up to its top billing in a long time, covering just three times in its last 13 games overall. A “must-win” game isn’t methodology I’m willing to bank on, since every playoff game is vital, and this Clippers squad hasn’t earned that wiggle room with zero evidence of being able to flip a switch, like the rival Lakers or other great teams before them.
I believe in that opening spread of Mavs -1.5 and don’t buy into the early move to the Clippers, but I’m gladly taking the bonus points.
PREDICTION: Dallas +2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Clippers haven’t been able to keep pace with the Mavericks’ hot shooting but by no means have they been terrible on offense. Los Angeles scored 121 points on 54 percent shooting in Game 2 and owns an advanced offensive rating of 121.1 through two postseason games – seventh-best in the playoffs so far.
The pace rating of Game 2 shot up, jumping from 87.5 in Game 1 to 98.5, and if Los Angeles does roll out a smaller lineup, utilizing guys like Terance Mann more, then expect the tempo to stay high. The Clips defense may be scrambling for answers but the offense isn’t an issue with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and a deep bench.
Dallas has been far from perfect offensively. The Mavericks have been good at drawing fouls and getting to the line with the clock stopped, but are shooting just 33 for 50 from the stripe. The Mavs wrapped the regular season as 77 percent shooters from the foul line and a return to the norm would help Over bettors get this final score past the total.
The Game 3 total has ticked down from 221.5 to sub-220, with early play on the Under as bettors brace for a sudden surge in Los Angeles’ defensive intensity. It’s an abrupt correction to totals of 216 and 217.5 in the opening two games, but I’m going the other way on this number and betting on another Over.
PREDICTION: Over 219.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
If the Clippers choose to forget about helping and switching on Doncic, and give him the flashing green on offense, that means less creation from the superstar guard for Dallas’ other options as L.A. hopes they go cold in support.
Luka has been doing it all, including making his teammates look good with 18 total assists through two games, including 11 in Game 1. On the season, Doncic dishes out an average of 8.6 dimes per game but has stayed below the 9.5-assist total for Game 3 in nine of his last 11 games.
Los Angeles is a good pressure team that disrupts offensive sets to the tune of only 22.9 assists allowed per game (fourth-lowest) and only 0.571 assists per game field goal made. Luka may score a butt-load of points on Friday (points total at 29.5) but won’t top his Over/Under in assists.
PREDICTION: Luka Doncic assists Under 9.5 (-118)
Clippers vs Mavericks betting card
- Dallas +2 (-110)
- Over 219.5 (-110)
- Luka Doncic assists Under 9.5 (-118)
Picks made on 5/27/2021 at 1:35 p.m. ET
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