Celtics vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Smart Money on Turnovers in Twin Cities

After being anointed preseason title favorites, the Boston Celtics have hit the roughest of rough patches with the playoffs just around the corner. They’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games, and are coming off an embarrassing effort against the hapless Houston Rockets. 

They’re in for a fight if they want to get back to their winning ways tonight, with a young and hungry Minnesota Timberwolves team that has started to coalesce since the trade deadline addition of Mike Conley.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Timberwolves on Wednesday, March 15 believe that Marcus Smart will continue his recent struggles against Minnesota’s plethora of quality defenders.

Celtics vs Timberwolves best odds

Celtics vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

The Boston Celtics are arguably the deepest team in the NBA, but even they have their weaknesses. Boston has a lot of guys capable of handling the ball and making plays, but they don’t have anyone in the style of Ja Morant or Chris Paul who you feel totally comfortable with as a full-time floor general. 

For all his strengths, Jayson Tatum still suffers as a full-time primary on the ball, and Jaylen Brown has slotted in as one of the NBA’s best play finishers capable of attacking a bent defense. In the starting lineup, the duty more often than not falls to Marcus Smart.

He’s perhaps overtaxed in a pure point guard role, but the Celtics desperately need Smart to work as an on ball facilitator. The Celtics' recent skid can’t be laid at the feet of any one player, but Smart’s decision-making and penchant for turnovers has been a contributing factor.

Despite his usage ranking near the bottom of the league among full-time point guards, Smart’s 16.1% turnover percentage places him in the 11th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s not likely to improve tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Minnesota has been the seventh-best defense in the NBA this season, only trailing Boston by less than two points per 100 possessions. But it hasn’t been just because of the trade for Rudy Gobert, and maybe not even primarily because of that, but rather the Wolves' defensive playmaking style. Minnesota presents a unique challenge for guards that are struggling with ball control, as they’re one of the best teams in the NBA in terms of forcing turnovers this season.

The duo of Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards are reasons No. 1 and 2, but Kyle Anderson, Jordan McLaughlin, and Gobert also present their own challenges.

McDaniels is making a strong case for inclusion on the All-Defensive team, and while “Ant” still has lapses, he’s one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA when fully engaged. The pair of them have physical tools and toughness combined with great agility, making them a daunting matchup. They’re smart and effective help defenders as well, and many opponents have found their pockets picked before they knew what was happening this season. 

Anderson, no slouch himself, is in the 91st percentile among all forwards in steal rate, and always seems to be thinking the game at an extremely high level. Gobert does his part to force turnovers more indirectly, but by providing a brick wall for opposing drivers, he funnels ball handlers into dangerous positions from which the other Wolves pounce. 

But perhaps the best kept defensive secret outside of the Twin Cities is McLaughlin. J-Mac leads all point guards in steal percentage at a ridiculous 2.5%, per Cleaning the Glass, and he never commits a foul in the process.

In short, Smart will have his hands full trying to just hold onto the ball on Wednesday. Smart has had three or more turnovers in five of his last 10 games, and is averaging just below 2.5 turnovers on the season. Getting significant plus money for Smart to have three or more turnovers in this particular matchup is significant value.

My best bet: Marcus Smart Over 2.5 turnovers (+140 at DraftKings)

Celtics vs Timberwolves spread analysis

The Celtics are in a pretty serious funk. They’ve been through this twice before already this season, and each time have come out stronger for it in the end. But something about their loss to the Houston Rockets on Monday makes this feel like a new nadir for the season. They really miss Robert Williams III, and at times don’t seem to know who should get the ball and when. 

When the perimeter shooting dries up, they become beatable. They’re just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games playing on a single day's rest, perhaps in part because they rely so heavily on Al Horford at this point. 

However, the Celtics seem to play better away from TD Garden of late. They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road.

The Timberwolves, while improving in some areas, are also just 5-5 in their 10 games as well, and are an abysmal 0-4 ATS in their last four games in Target Center. The Wolves simply can’t find any flow. One night they look awesome, as they did when dominating the Atlanta Hawks on Monday, but they can’t string together multiple good performances. They’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up win.

This line opened very soft at just Celtics -3.5, since rising to -5, which seems about right to me. I don’t see any great value here because it’s hard to get a read on which version of either of these teams is going to appear on any given night.

Celtics vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

This line opened at 231.5, but has grown as many as two points at most sportsbooks. That might be connected to uncertainty around the status of Gobert, who remains questionable for Wednesday’s contest. 

Gobert has been subject to a lot of scrutiny this season as the Timberwolves have disappointed relative to expectations (and due to the kings' ransom Danny Ainge extracted from Minnesota in trade), but he remains a serious impact player when it comes to determining a total. The Timberwolves are 7.6 points per 100 possessions stingier with Gobert on the court this season, matching his mark from his last season in Utah. 

The Wolves have strung together a series of Unders as their defensive identity has continued to develop since the trade deadline. The Under is now 8-2-1 in the Timberwolves’ last 11 home games, as well as 6-2 in their last eight overall.

Boston should theoretically be a strong defensive foil to the Wolves, capable of matching up Edwards with multiple defensive wings. And while the Celtics are one of the teams that emphasize 3-point shooting above all other offense, no team can be truly effective at scoring without getting to the rim as well. 

This total will be determined by the presence and effectiveness of Gobert. If Rudy plays, it’s likely going Under, unless Horford can stretch the Minnesota defense to its breaking point by pulling Gobert out of the paint.

Celtics vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Timberwolves.

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