Celtics vs Lakers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Defense Reigns Supreme in Christmas Tilt

It's Christmas Day, and the marquee matchup of the day will feature LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers taking on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics. I'm taking a closer look at the NBA odds to determine the best bet for this matchup between two storied franchises on one of its biggest days on the calendar.

You didn't think I would willingly accept a day off for Christmas when it's one of the biggest NBA days of the year, did you?

This was always one of my favorite days of the year when I was growing up, and it's a big reason why I am an Orlando Magic fan. While everyone else was focused on their new toys, I was freaking out watching Tracy McGrady drop 40+ points on Christmas Day.

LeBron James said it best on X the other day: There is nothing better than opening up presents and seeing NBA games on throughout the entire day.

If you're reading this article, I'm assuming you won't be opening too many presents this year, but I do have a gift for you thanks to a lineup switch by the Lakers and a rogue price by BetRivers. Let's take a closer look at my NBA picks for the Celtics vs. Lakers on December 25.

Celtics vs Lakers odds

Celtics vs Lakers predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers made a switch to their starting lineup on Saturday by moving D'Angelo Russell to the bench and adding Jarred Vanderbilt to the starting five. This adjustment grants LeBron James and Anthony Davis complete control of the offense within the first unit and also increases the defensive intensity. 

When the season began, the weak point in the Lakers' defense was having Russell and Austin Reaves at the point of the attack. Now, the Lakers feature Cam Reddish, James, Taurean Prince, and Vanderbilt on the perimeter, supported by the rim protection of AD. This change is expected to make it extremely difficult for opposing offenses to exploit mismatches through certain actions and should enhance the Lakers' defense. 

One team that will be specifically affected is the Boston Celtics, who rely on an offense with a lot of shooting and space. However, there won't be any weak points for the C's to attack since L.A. can switch everything against them.

This change works both ways, as the Lakers are now prioritizing defense over offense in their starting lineup. Not only do I expect L.A. to match up better defensively against Boston, but I also don't anticipate as much scoring. However, the impact of this move may not be fully reflected in the game total just yet because it was implemented recently.

Another angle at play here also involves the Lakers' defense. While the "this game means more" and motivation angle in sports betting is often overplayed, there was a noticeable shift in the Lakers' performance during the NBA In-Season Tournament.

Their defensive rating in the regular season is 112.5, but in the two knockout round games (stats for the championship are excluded as it doesn't count toward the regular season), it was 95.5. When the games carry more weight, such as a Christmas Day game, the defensive energy of Los Angeles tends to increase.

The total for the Christmas Day showdown between the Lakers and Celtics is projected to be closer to 232.5 than 235.5. This means that we can price the Under 235.5 at -135, and it is available at BetRivers for -112.

My best bet: Under 235.5 (-112 at BetRivers)

Celtics vs Lakers same-game parlay

Under 235.5 

Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 points 

Lakers +3

+440 at BetRivers

I love the switch the Lakers have made with their starting lineup, inserting Vanderbilt and moving Russell to the second unit. In minutes when James and Davis are not on the floor together, you now have two players who can create offense in Reaves and Russell. Additionally, they are playing against the second unit of other teams, so their defense doesn't get exposed as much.

I think Los Angeles poses matchup problems for the Celtics with how their roster is constructed. If you're giving me three points with the Lakers playing at home, I'll take it. The status of Kristaps Porzingis is also up in the air here, so if he is ruled out, this line will shift away from Boston -3 and toward the Lake Show.

Remember when Jaylen Brown hit Stephen Curry with the two small celebrations this past week? Those opportunities will be few and far between when he plays against L.A. Brown will be guarded by the 6-foot-7 Reddish or 6-foot-8 Vanderbilt, with the rim protection of Davis behind them. Brown will have to go Over the total of 24.5 points by mainly relying on his jump shot. The total of 24.5 is also higher than normal for Brown because he is averaging 27.8 points per game in his last four games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as a 1.5-point road favorite against the Lakers on Christmas Day at FanDuel, and we have observed that line move to make the Celtics -3. The C's were a -2 favorite before their 37-point beatdown of the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.

The total opened at 234.5 at DraftKings, and it has remained at this number. We're seeing a lot of 234.5 across the market, with only BetRivers trading the total at 235.5. This is why BetRivers received our action with our Under bet, as they're currently offering the best price for Under bettors.

Celtics vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the fourth-quarter game total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+16.85 Units / 40% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Lakers.

Celtics vs Lakers game info

Celtics vs Lakers latest injuries

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