The Cleveland Cavaliers were messy in the series opener versus the Detroit Pistons.
Think “James Harden’s beard after eating ribs” kind of messy.
Game 2 of this Eastern Conference semifinal tips off tonight, and my Cavaliers vs. Pistons props expect a cleaner effort from Cleveland and more halfcourt action because of it.
That boils down to my best NBA picks for Game 2 on Thursday, May 7.
Best Cavaliers vs Pistons props for Game 2
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 James Harden |
Over 6.5 assists | -112 |
 Jalen Duren |
Over 15.5 points | +100 |
| Donovan Mitchell |
Over 2.5 threes | -115 |
Game 2 Prop #1: James Harden Over 6.5 assists
James Harden pointed the finger at himself following the Cleveland Cavaliers’ loss to the Detroit Pistons in Game 1. The Cavs guard had seven turnovers to seven assists in the opener. Yuck.
Those miscues combined with cold shooting from Cleveland left Harden’s 14 potential assists to shrivel up and die. And losing Jarrett Allen to foul trouble early also threw a wrench in the Cavaliers’ schemes.
Game 2 could see a shake up in the starting lineup, with Max Strus replacing Dean Wade and giving Cleveland more spot-up threats for Harden to find in drive-and-kick sets. If Allen can stay on the floor, he also benefits from the point guard’s playmaking.
Projections for Harden aren’t bullish on his assist output but do lean toward seven or more dimes in Game 2, with forecasts ranging from 6.1 to 7.3 assists. With fewer wasted possessions and improved fluidity on offense, Harden tops his passing prop.
Game 2 Prop #2: Jalen Duren Over 15.5 points
Jalen Duren’s box score from Game 1 doesn’t exactly tell you how troublesome the Pistons’ beefy forward is for the Cavaliers.
Duren got Allen into early foul trouble and dominated the glass with 12 rebounds. Offensively, he finished just 4-for-11 from the field for 11 points, staying below his closing point total of 16.5 O/U. He's gone Under in that prop market in seven of his first eight postseason outings.
While Duren has underperformed in the playoffs, Tuesday’s output was a byproduct of Detroit scoring a ton of points off turnovers and transition. Game 2 will be cleaner with more halfcourt action, which is where Duren throws his weight around.
Tonight’s game projections are positive, as most models sit around 17 points with a ceiling flirting with 20 points from Duren. My number comes out just north of 17 points in Game 2. His scoring total is bouncing between 14.5 and 15.5 O/U, depending on the book.
Game 2 Prop #3: Donovan Mitchell Over 2.5 threes
Detroit didn’t have to worry about protecting the perimeter against Orlando’s lack of outside threats in Round 1. Cleveland, on the other hand, has Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell hit 4 of 10 shots from beyond the arc in Game 1 and has hit three or more triples in five of his eight playoff outings so far. All 10 of those 3PAs in Tuesday’s loss were graded as either “open” or “wide open,” meaning there were no defenders within at least four feet of Mitchell.
Game 1’s offense flowed like a backed-up crapper and Mitchell found it tough cracking the Piston’s stingy interior defense, even complaining about the physicality when attempting to drive to the basket.
With Detroit pushing him out the perimeter and game script calling for Cleveland to claw from behind, Mitchell will continue to take and make shots from downtown. His Game 2 forecasts all sit beyond three 3-pointers tonight.
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