Tyrese Haliburton has quite literally never played as badly in the playoffs as he did in the Game 3 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Indiana Pacers superstar scored just four points and handed out only five assists in his 30 minutes.
His previous postseason worst had been a six-point, eight-assist showing in Game 1 against the Knicks last year, adding four steals for good measure.
There are no whispers of a Haliburton injury, he simply appeared to play badly. So, my Cavaliers vs. Pacers props and NBA picks begin with renewed faith in Haliburton. Tip comes at 8 ET on Sunday, May 11.
Best Cavaliers vs Pacers props
Haliburton o17.5 points (-115)
Hunter Under 1.5 threes (-115)- Turner Under 1.5 threes (+115)
Cavaliers vs Pacers player props for May 11
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Yours truly bet the Indiana Pacers to win this series at about +400 before it began largely out of a belief that Tyrese Haliburton is leveling up. It is yet to be seen if he completes this jump this postseason or if some of it waits until the beginning of the 2025-26 regular season, but Haliburton’s complete control of the first-round gentlemen’s sweep of the Bucks spoke volumes.
He averaged 17.6 points, 11.6 assists, and 6.4 rebounds in that series. He had help, but Haliburton dictated every moment of that series.
That continued to start this conference semifinal, rattling off 20.5 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.0 rebounds per game in the first two. Then it all fell apart in Game 3. He had never before failed to grab a rebound in a playoff game and four points was a new low among his 23 career postseason games.
There is no reason to expect that to repeat itself.
The greatest worry with Haliburton is when he starts leaning on 3-pointers too aggressively. When he was clearly, but unofficially, injured last postseason, he resorted to living beyond the arc, taking 63.5% of his field goals from deep in the second round compared to just 51.0% in the regular season.
That worry has not shown up in this series, not even in Game 3 when he took only one 3-pointer among eight field-goal attempts. Unless Haliburton establishes residency beyond the arc, some faith should be put in him bouncing back tonight.
De’Andre Hunter Under 1.5 threes (-115 at bet365)
De’Andre Hunter played through a thumb injury on his shooting hand in the Cleveland Cavaliers' Game 3 win, scoring eight points on 2-for-6 shooting, including 1-for-5 from deep in more than 20 minutes.
Hunter found five rebounds, but he also managed no assists and snagged no steals. He was a -14 in the plus/minus column,
Was that a reflection of Hunter, or a testament to Donovan Mitchell's effort and productivity? Logically, both played a part.
But there's no way around the fact that Hunter is not at his best right now. A dislocated thumb on your shooting hand would usually demand more than missing one game. Hesitancy handling the ball or pulling up makes sense, especially against a defense that limits 3-point attempts like the Pacers do, ranking No. 3 in opponent 3-point attempt rate at 39.0% after the All-Star Break.
Perhaps more notably, Indiana ranked No. 4 in opposing 3-point percentage in that stretch at an impressive 34.5%.
This was never a defense that Hunter would feel comfortable shooting against. Now, he doesn't feel comfortable shooting at all.
Myles Turner Under 1.5 threes (+115 at bet365)
Myles Turner has too much work to do on both ends of the court to worry about pulling up from deep right now. He is a quality 4 of 10 from beyond the arc in this series, but the 3.3 attempts per game are distinctly lower than his 5.5 from the regular season.
A change like that is not easily chalked up solely to pace or opposing defense. In Turner’s case, some of it is his defensive need. With Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen manning the inside for Cleveland, Turner needs to provide a physical presence on defense, more so than ever needed in the regular season.
His five personal fouls cut into his playing time in Game 3, but it's still unlikely he would have taken more than one more shot from long range.
Continue doubting Turner’s offensive production, mostly because he is needed to produce on defense.
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