The forecast for South Beach calls for beautiful weather and clear skies tonight, except for that rather large dark cloud hanging above the Kaseya Center.
The Miami Heat are down 0-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series and facing elimination at home in Game 4.
I look into the individual player performances with my best NBA player props for Cavaliers vs. Heat on Monday, April 28.
Best Cavaliers vs Heat props
Wiggins o15.5 points (-120)
Mobley 15+ points/7+ rebounds (-140)- Adebayo o10.5 rebounds (-130)
Cavaliers vs Heat player props for April 28
Andrew Wiggins Over 15.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Andrew Wiggins’ scoring prop has dropped three points since Game 1 and you can’t blame bookies for making that big adjustment.
The Miami Heat small forward has been bad in this series, especially the past two games in which Wiggins is a collective 6-for-20 from the floor. After scoring 14 points on 5-for-11 shooting in Game 1, Wiggins has posted twin 10-point efforts in the Heat’s last two losses.
That said, those two performances do come with some caveats, and that leads to value with Wiggins to play Over his deflated points prop tonight.
In Game 2, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra was grasping for straws against this Cleveland Cavaliers attack. Wiggins played just 28 minutes, with zero action in the fourth quarter, as Spoelstra went with a bigger lineup. After the game, he admitted that he wants Wiggins on the floor for those closing moments.
Game 3 was a wash for the Heat. Miami trailed by 24 points entering the fourth quarter and Wiggins played less than seven minutes in that final frame as Cleveland ran away with a lopsided victory.
Tonight is a do-or-die game for Miami, so expect the Heat’s stars to get a lot of run. Wiggins played 38 minutes in Game 1, which gives him a higher ceiling than many projections call for, in terms of minutes.
Forecasts range from 15.6 points to 18.8 points from Wiggins with those models built between 31 and 34 minutes of floor time. My number comes out to 17.2 and there’s potential for more scoring with regular playing time.
Evan Mobley 15+ points/7+ rebounds SGP (-140 at bet365)
Evan Mobley has been a monster offensively in the past two games. Miami’s undersized lineup hasn’t had an answer, with rookie center Kel'el Ware getting eaten alive by the Cavs’ frontcourt attack and Bam Adebayo running out of steam.
Mobley has scored a combined 39 points on 15-for-23 shooting in those wins and is projected anywhere from 16 to 20 points in Game 4 tonight.
Cleveland’s efficient offense it is hitting at a near 51% clip from the floor in this series, which hasn’t made for many misses — and therefore fewer rebounding opportunities.
Mobley has snatched rebounding outputs of seven, six, and six so far, playing below his prop totals of 10.5 O/U in each of those contests. His player forecasts for Game 4 sit between nine and 11 rebounds, but if the Cavs keep clicking there just won’t be enough boards to go around.
Instead of playing Mobley’s double-double prop at -110, I’m going to make a same-game parlay for the 6-foot-11 forward, asking him to score 15 or more points while grabbing seven or more rebounds at -140.
He’s yet to accomplish this stat line in the series but has scored at least 15 points and recorded seven or more rebounds in 29 of his final 40 regular season games. Mobley finished averaging 18.5 points and 9.3 rebounds.
Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
The Heat need to leave it all on the floor tonight, so expect Adebayo to empty the tank to keep Miami alive.
Adebayo has battled as an undersized center against Cleveland’s towers of powers, pulling down rebounding efforts of nine, nine, and 14 in the first three games. That’s pretty impressive considering the Cavaliers have shot 51% from the floor.
Bam’s rebound props have bounced around during this series, ranging from 9.5 to 11.5 O/U. Tonight’s total is 10.5 O/U and player forecasts are just as erratic as those numbers, ranging from a low of 8.5 to as many as 13.
The bulk of models do come in at 11 or more rebounds from Adebayo, who will log 40-plus minutes again with the season on the line. He was a beast on the boards in the two do-or-die Play-In games, with 11 and 12 rebounds in those victories.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
