The Cleveland Cavaliers (8-5) started the season hot but are currently riding a four-game skid. The Cavs dropped the last three games of their five-game road trip and lost again in their brief stop at home on Sunday against the Timberwolves.
They will briefly hit the road once more to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (10-3), who are also in a bit of a funk as of late after starting 9-0. The Bucks have dropped three of their last four, twice to the Hawks and the surprisingly feisty Spurs.
Which Central division team will turn things around on Wednesday night? Continue reading for free NBA picks and analysis for the Cavaliers vs. Bucks matchup on November 16th.
Cavaliers vs Bucks best odds
Cavaliers vs Bucks picks and predictions
Being at the top is never easy, and both the Cavaliers and Bucks have witnessed that to varying degrees. The Cavaliers, fresh off of an offseason blockbuster acquisition of star guard Donovan Mitchell, brushed off the need to get acclimated and successfully navigated an untimely Darius Garland injury to start off 8-1.
The Bucks were even better to start the season, starting 9-0 and finishing as the longest-lasting undefeated team of the season. This comes a season after just barely missing the Eastern Conference Finals, losing a Game 7 to the Finals-reaching Celtics without Khris Middleton.
Middleton has yet to return to the Bucks, but many have stepped up to help make up for his production. Giannis Antentokounmpo has arguably been the best player through the first month; Jrue Holiday has been extremely impactful on offense to match his world-beating defense; Brook Lopez has chipped in four 20+ point games; rookie MarJon Beauchamp is making the most of his increased opportunity as of late (32.7 MPG in the last three games) by chipping in 19 and 20 points in two of the last three.
Tonight, they will take on a Cavaliers team dying of thirst for a win, having lost four straight. The losses have been particularly excruciating, all being by single digits and with three of those coming against teams with losing records (Kings, Warriors, and Timberwolves).
They will have to work especially hard on offense with the Bucks' 105.0 ranking best in the league by a good margin: the gap between the Bucks and the next best team (the Clippers) is as large as the gap between the Clippers and the seventh-best team. Milwaukee also controls the glass well (fourth in defensive rebounding rate) and defends the paint well (third in blocks per game).
Cleveland is, of course, proficient in the paint as well. Big men Jarrett Allen (11.5 RPG), Evan Mobley (7.5), and Kevin Love (7.5) lead the team in that regard and are contributing to the Cavaliers' league-best 77.1% defensive rebounding rate, a mark well above the competition. To illustrate: the gap between them and the second-best mark is as big as the gap between the second-best and ninth-best.
The Cavs should have enough talent to stuff the lane and keep Giannis content with shooting enough outside shots to make this game competitive or even win this outright.
My best bet: Cavaliers +4 (-105 at DraftKings)
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Cavaliers vs Bucks spread analysis
NBA odds opened the spread at Bucks -4 and has largely stayed there at most shops, with some beginning to show juiced -3.5s.
Both teams have been some of the league's best against the spread to start the season. Cleveland is 8-5 ATS (good for seventh-best) and Milwaukee is 9-4 (good for third-best).
The Bucks are a very strong 6-2 ATS as home favorites to start the season, which is a massive turnaround from their 15-28 record last year in the same split.
Cavaliers vs Bucks Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 220 but has since moved as low as 216.5 at some books at the time of this writing.
The Cavaliers have played 8-5 to the Over to start the season, the fifth-best mark in the NBA. But after starting 5-2 that way, results have evened out (3-3).
Milwaukee's defensive dominance has contributed to an 8-5 record the opposite way, but they have gone Over in two of the last three.
It is notable that Cleveland seemingly clamped down as a road underdog last year, going 17-11 towards the Under in those spots.
Cavaliers vs Bucks betting trend to know
The Bucks are 6-2 ATS as home favorites to start the year. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Bucks.
Cavaliers vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 16, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports |
