The only misstep in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s stunning start to the season was a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers earlier this month, but the defending champs can hand out some payback as part of today’s eight-game schedule.
Some of their primary Western Conference rivals are also in action, with the Los Angeles Lakers chasing a seventh straight win and the Houston Rockets trying to keep pace, and that sets up some tasty NBA player props.
Read on for my favorite NBA picks ahead of today's action.
Best NBA player props today
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Deni Avdija |
Under 23.5 points | -115 |
 Santi Aldama |
Over 15.5 points + assists | -125 |
 Austin Reaves |
Over 29.5 points + rebounds | -110 |
Prop #1: Deni Avdija Under 23.5 points
Deni Avdija has picked up where he left off last year, and he’s looked like an All-Star through the first month of the season, but I’m fading his points prop tonight against the relentless Oklahoma City Thunder defense.
With Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso lining up to take on the perimeter assignments, that’s a recipe for a tough outing, and every drive into the paint is risky business.
The Thunder held Avdija to 11 points on 4-for-16 shooting when the teams squared off a week ago, and I expect Mark Daigneault’s men to force the ball to other Blazers at every opportunity.
Avdija also struggled from the foul line this week, making just 13 of his 22 free throws across his past two games, and OKC will make him earn every point.
The Thunder are giving up just 106.3 points per game this year as the league’s stingiest defense, and that collective dominance will wear on Avdija and the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
- Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSN-Oklahoma, KATU
Prop #2: Santi Aldama Over 15.5 points + assists
The Memphis Grizzlies are 4–1 in their last five games, steadying the ship a little despite Ja Morant’s ongoing absence due to a calf strain, and role players are a key piece of that story.
Santi Aldama is a perfect example. Though his minutes have been somewhat erratic, he’s making the most of his opportunities. That makes this combo prop a value pick, with Aldama nailing the Over in five straight contests.
His scoring provides a really nice floor, and he’s finished with double-digit points in all 14 outings this month. Now he faces a Sacramento Kings defense that he shredded for 29 points ten days ago, making 11 of his 18 shots and adding three assists.
Without Ja, the Grizzlies are relying on a playmaking-by-committee approach, and Aldama has dished 19 dimes across his past games. I don’t see Sacramento offering much resistance.
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSN-Southeast, NBCS-California
Prop #3: Austin Reaves Over 29.5 points + rebounds
The Los Angeles Lakers are on a roll, and Austin Reaves is making an emphatic statement as a long-term co-star for Luka Doncic. I’m riding with Reaves tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans, with the L.A. guard putting together a terrific week.
Reaves poured in 38 points to go with eight rebounds in Friday’s NBA Cup win over the Mavericks, and he’s hit this combo Over in six straight outings. Pencil him in for a seventh against this 3-17 New Orleans team.
He’s shooting 52% from the field in November, and he’s adjusted seamlessly to LeBron James’ return. With Luka and LeBron drawing a crowd, Reaves can feast against scrambling defenses, and he served up a 31-4-7 stat line in his last matchup against the Pelicans.
Reaves is averaging 30.4 ppg at home this year, so his rebounding chops are just gravy for this prop. He’s also knocked down eight of his last 12 3-pointers.
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Spectrum SportsNet, GCSEN
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