This space nailed arguably the biggest upset of the season last week when Corey Heim won the inaugural Anduril 250 at the Coronado Street Course.
I'm once again looking past Shane Van Gisbergen in the NASCAR Cup Series odds while giving out some Toyota Save Mart 350 long-shot predictions and sleeper picks for Sunday, June 28.
See why my free betting picks are targeting Chase Briscoe at Sonoma Raceway.
NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 sleeper picks
- Michael McDowell (+1600)
- Chase Briscoe (+2200)
- Ross Chastain (+6000)
Picks made on 6-26.
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NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 long-shot predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Michael McDowell
+1600 at DraftKings
A Michael McDowell Top 5 has been a winning ticket in three of the last four Cup Series races at Sonoma, with the exception being a seventh-place finish in 2023.
The No. 71 driver clearly has a feel for this course.
Although McDowell has just four laps led in that stretch, he's picked up stage points four times, so he's not just clunking it up there at the end.
Road/street courses have treated McDowell well this season (fifth at COTA, second at Watkins Glen, 10th at San Diego), so he's a must-use this week.
If he qualifies Top 10, I'd play him down to +1000.
Sleeper pick to win: Chase Briscoe
+2200 at DraftKings
I'm not holding Chase Briscoe's 17th-place result at San Diego against him. Not after a fourth at Watkins Glen and a bad luck 37th at COTA (transaxle issue) that should have been another Top 5.
Briscoe has an average rating of 95 or better in four of his last six overall. He's found the front three times in that stretch, leading 52 laps.
Briscoe was a strong second at Sonoma last year, his first time in a Toyota here, picking up stage points twice.
Take Briscoe down to +1200 if he qualifies Top 10, +1500 otherwise.
Sleeper pick to win: Ross Chastain
+6000 at DraftKings
I am not a fan of Ross Chastain, but I am a fan of winning money, so I'm adding the No. 1 pilot to my card this week.
I was surprised to see Chastain being offered at these odds after putting together his first back-to-back Top 10s of 2026. He drove from 24th to be eighth at Pocono, and 23rd to be seventh at the Coronado Street Course.
Chastain is fifth among active full-time drivers in average finishing position at Sonoma (14.3), recording four Top 10s in his last five starts here.
I'm a buyer on Chastain at +3500 or better with a Top 10 qualifying effort, or +4000 if he's starting further back.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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