South Point 400: Las Vegas Picks, Odds & Race Preview

The NASCAR playoffs keep cruising along, and we're now into the Round of 8 — the final round of cuts to be made before the Championship 4 are set. 

William Byron still leads the way in the point standings, but it's Kyle Larson who again finds himself the favorite for this weekend's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

The NASCAR Cup Series odds still paint the picture of total dogfight among the favorites — can someone create some separation this weekend in Sin City?

We dive through the field with our South Point 400 odds, and serve up the best betting picks as the playoff field continues to shrink. 

Odds to win 2023 South Point 400

Driver
Kyle Larson	+275	+375
William Byron	+450	+500
Martin Truex Jr.	+750	+950
Tyler Reddick	+850	+900
Denny Hamlin	+900	+900
Kyle Busch	+1,000	+1,300
Christopher Bell	+1,100	+1,100
Chris Buescher	+1,200	+1,000
Ross Chastain	+1,600	+950
Ryan Blaney	+1,800	+2,000
Chase Elliott	+1,900	+2,000
Bubba Wallace	+1,900	+1,800
Joey Logano	+2,500	+1,600
Brad Keselowski	+2,800	+3,000
Alex Bowman	+3,000	+3,000
Ty Gibbs	+3,500	+2,200
Kevin Harvick	+6,500	+6,000
Erik Jones	+8,000	+8,000
Daniel Suarez	+13,000	+10,000
Micahel McDowell	+20,000	+15,000

Odds as of October 15, 2023.

South Point 400 field

We're seeing another heavy focus on the remaining playoff drivers this week, with Larson catching relatively short +450 odds for a victory — and Denny Hamlin and William Byron hot on his heels.

Larson won here in 2021, and has posted strong results at the track since, but he's finished no better than 13th in any of this season's past three races, and will have to close the playoffs strong with the dudes behind him on fire.

While Denny Hamlin wrecked out in 37th in Charlotte, there's little to suggest he hasn't been NASCAR's hottest driver over the past three months, with a slew of Top-3 finishes dotting his recent results.

Meanwhile, Byron added another runner-up finish at Charlotte, putting him 2-2-1 in his past three finishes. He won here earlier this year, and is in peak form entering the Round of 8. 

South Point 400 picks and predictions

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Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 24, 2023.

South Point 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)

He has three consecutive Top-2 finishes in the spring race, including a 2021 win at that and runner-up after 63 laps led this spring. Larson was also second in both stages as well. At Kansas, a like track, he was second and fourth, respectively, this season too. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished in the Top 4 in five of the eight races but if not for a crash while battling for the lead at Texas after leading nearly 100 laps. and the same in the spring race at Darlington, he’d be 7-for-8. 

William Byron (+550)

He dominated this past spring to the tune of sweeping both stages, leading 176 of 271 laps, and winning. On top of that, Byron also finished seventh in the playoff race in 2019 and restarted the spring race in 2020 on the front row before contact cut his tire on the overtime restart. He was eighth in the 2021 playoff race and placed fifth last spring too. He was third and 15th in the two Kansas races this season. On intermediate tracks this season, he’s finished first, third, first, second, eighth, fourth, 15th, and first, respectively. He enters this weekend having finished in the Top 2 in each of the last three races. 

Denny Hamlin (+550)

Hamlin won the 2021 fall race, was 11th this past spring, and has four Top-5 finishes in his last six Vegas starts. Also, he has finished fourth, second, first, and second in his four Kansas tries with the Next Gen and was fifth in the last round at Texas.  

South Point 400 sleepers

Christopher Bell (+1,000)

Bell has three Top-10 finishes in his last four Vegas starts, including a fifth-place run this past spring. It could be four straight if not for being an innocent bystander in the Kyle Larson vs. Bubba Wallace on-track spat last October. Bell finished fourth in Stage 1 and was running up front when he was collected in their feud. On a like track at Kansas, Bell also was fifth and third last year, and 36th and eighth this year. He was fourth in the last round at Texas. He has three Top-8 finishes in the last five races on the season. 

Bubba Wallace (+2,000)

He too has good cars on these tracks, with two fourth-place finishes in three starts on them this season. At Texas, he led over 100 laps, won the pole, and had a Top-5 car all day. 

Alex Bowman (+3,500)

In four of his last six Vegas starts, he had a Top-6, including a win and third-place efforts in his last four spring races here. At Kansas, Bowman finished ninth, fourth, and 10th in his last three tries too. 

South Point 400 fades

Kyle Busch (+1,300)

While this typically is a good track for him, it hasn’t been with RCR. He was 14th this past spring. At a like track in Kansas, Busch was also 35th and seventh, respectively, this year. 

Ryan Blaney (+1,300)

He has eight Top-7 finishes in his last 13 starts in Vegas. However, his last two were 28th and 13th. At Kansas this year, he finished 16th and 12th. 

Chase Elliott (+1,500)

Prior to a runner-up in the 2021 playoff race, Elliott had just two career Top 5s on this track with his last four finishes being 26th, 22nd, 13th, and ninth, respectively. He has six finishes of 21st or worse there too, and was only 29th and 11th at Kansas last season, seventh and sixth this season, and 21st in last year’s Vegas playoff race.

South Point 400 prop pick

Toyota winning manufacturer (+135)

It's no secret, when you come to the four annual stops between Las Vegas and Kansas, you're going to have to go through Hendrick Motorsports and Toyotas in general if you want to win on these 1.5-mile tracks. 

Toyotas led 319 of 534 laps in the last two Kansas spring races and 177 of 535 in the fall. Hendrick Motorsports led 164 of the same 534 laps in the pair of Kansas spring races and 262 of the 535 in the fall. 

In Kansas 1 in 2022, Toyota (171 of 267 laps led) went 1-3-4-5-6. HMS went 2-9-16-29 after leading 64 of 267 laps. In Kansas 1 this year, Toyota (148 of 267 laps led) went 1-4-8-9 while HMS (100 of 267 laps led) went 2-3-7-25. 

For the last two fall races, Toyota (94 of 267 laps led) went 1-2-3-5 and 1-2-8-14-32-36 (83 of 268 laps led). HMS went 4-6-8-11 (116 of 267 laps led) and 4-6-10-15 (146 of 268 laps led). 

For Vegas, it's just as good. The last two spring races, Toyota led 123 of 541 laps while HMS led 292 laps themselves. 

In Vegas 1 of 2022, Toyota led 107 of 274 laps while HMS led 51. This past year, Toyota went 4-5-7-11 and led 16 of 271 laps, but HMS led 241 of 271 in going 1-2-3 for the race, 1-2 in Stage 1 and 1-2-3 in Stage 2.  Combined, that's 415 of 541 laps led in the spring Vegas races.

With Toyota getting a better number and you having three viable drivers compared to two for Hendrick Motorsports, I’ll play with numbers in my favor out of the Toyota camp. 

Pick: Toyota winning manufacturer (+135 at DraftKings)

Las Vegas Motor Speedway track analysis

Vegas had become a track that produces a ton of lead changes lately. While there were only 13 of them in the spring race, there were 18 or more in nine straight prior.  It has character with some bumps in the turns and has turned into a track that can reward pit strategy in the event you can take two tires later, or even gamble with fuel only. Nothing changes this year since nothing about the car, nor the track, changed between last season and this.

Joey Logano’s spring win in 2020 was the first time that a Cup winner was under the age of 30 in any of the previous races run at the track. Kyle Larson then won a year later and was 28 at the time. The last two springs, Alex Bowman was 29 in his spring race a year ago and William Byron was 25 this spring. That win suddenly gives us four of the last seven winners under the age of 30.

South Point 400 trends

• Four of the last five races were won from the Top 3 rows. 
  
  
• There’s only been one pole sitter to ever win in Vegas history (31 races). That was Kyle Busch back in 2009.
  
  
• Six times has the winner of the seventh playoff race gone on to win the title later that season.
  
  
• 21 of the last 26 Vegas races were won by a past champion. 

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