Quaker State 400 Picks, Predictions, and Race Preview

The way the books tell it, the Quaker State 400 is a wide-open race. But peer through some of the relevant data, and a few of the "favorites" are easy to rule out. Find out who to back — and fade — with our NASCAR betting picks.

Last Updated: Jul 7, 2022 10:58 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chase Elliott Quaker State 400 NASCAR
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Get ready for another wild, unpredictable NASCAR event Sunday afternoon in the ATL. 

Sportsbooks are marking this as anybody's race, with a three-way tie atop the Quaker State 400 odds board, and six drivers tied for second at +1,200. Luckily, we're here to help you sort through the uncertainty and find your best bets. 

Here are our best Quaker State 400 picks and predictions for Sunday afternoon at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with the green flag scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET.     

Quaker State 400 best bets

Picks made on 7/6/22 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick above to jump to the full analysis.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Quaker State 400 favorites    

Chase Elliott (+1,000)

He’s never won on his home track before, but his teammate won back in the spring and Elliott has three Top 10s in as many races on superspeedways this season, plus a pair of Top-2 results the last two weeks. 

Ryan Blaney (+1,000)

He was fourth in 2020, won this race in 2021, and fifth in the July race last year. Also, Blaney is as good as anyone now on superspeedways, so if this race runs like Daytona/Talladega again, you’ll be happy to snatch him up at 10-1. 

Ross Chastain (+1,000)

Kurt Busch won in this car last year, while Chastain finished second here in March and won at Talladega a month later. He was +2,400 in March, so the odds have reflected his recent pace. 

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Quaker State 400 longshot picks

Kurt Busch (+2,500)

He’s a former winner three-time winner here, including this very race last year. While the package has changed, he was still third back in March. Busch has seven Top-8 finishes in his last eight starts on the track and won on another 1.5-mile track at Kansas back in May.

Kevin Harvick (+3,000)

At one point, Atlanta was his playground, but he’s since cooled. However, Harvick has been smart and  kept himself in there at the end of speedway races over the last couple of years. 

Michael McDowell (+3,500)

Won last year’s Daytona 500 and has two Top-8 finishes in three superspeedway races run this season. 

Quaker State 400 fades

Kyle Larson (+1,200)

Now that this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, that negates Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top 5 in 32 starts on them at that. He was 30th back in March. 

William Byron (+1,200)

He may have led 111 laps in his March win, but the last time someone swept both Atlanta races occurred back in 2007. Also, Byron has just one Top 10 in his last 10 starts on the season with his last Top 5 coming in his Martinsville win in April.

Joey Logano (+1,200)

His last five Atlanta starts have seen him finish 23rd, 10th, 15th, 19th, and ninth, respectively. He was 21st (Daytona) and 32nd (Talladega) in the other two speedway races this season. 

Quaker State 400 matchup pick

Joey Logano (-120) vs. Daniel Suarez (+100)

Logano has two Top 5s in his last nine starts on the season and no Top 5s in his last five at Atlanta. Meanwhile, Suarez was fourth here in March and has as many Top 5s in the last three weeks as Logano has in the last two months. 

PICK: Suarez (+100)

Quaker State 400 preview

This race should look a lot like the spring running — featuring action like Daytona and Talladega — which is why after all the uncertainty we saw for the spring race, we have more data to base this weekend off of. 

We’ve seen three superspeedway races run this season with three different drivers winning from three different teams. Austin Cindric (Team Penske) won the Daytona 500. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports) won here in March while Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing) won at Talladega in April. 

That certainly opens the door. 

William Byron isn’t primed to be the first driver in well over a decade to sweep the Atlanta races. His teammates have all struggled on speedway tracks, while Chase Elliott has never won on home turf before and Kyle Larson has one Top 5 in 32 superspeedway starts. Team Penske was 9-17-32 this past spring themselves. 

Does it open the door to Joe Gibbs Racing? They only went 8-23-29-33 here in March and feature Martin Truex Jr. who’s 0-for-25 in Atlanta. 

That’s why this could be a new team race. Trackhouse Racing (second, fourth in March) and 23XI Racing (third, 13th — but Wallace was second at the white flag and crashed) have my attention. 

Quaker State 400 key stat

The Fords have won all but two Atlanta races since 2017, and, in my opinion, still have the top speedway package. They went 1-2-3-4-5 in all four Daytona 500 practices, 1-2-3 (Duel 1), 1-2-3-4 (Duel 2) and placed three cars in the Top 5 for the ‘500 itself. 

However, Chevrolet is 2-for-3 on speedway tracks this season, while Toyota hasn’t won on this track in any of the last 10 tries. 

Quaker State 400 live betting trend to watch

Since stages began, this race’s winner has scored stage points in every stage, save once (2019). In March, William Byron won the first stage and was ninth in the second one. Last year, the eventual race winner finished in the Top 3 in each stage. In fact, since 2017, the winner finished in the Top 5 in six of the seven Stage 1s — including five in the Top 3 — to go along with the Top 7 in five of the seven Stage 2s.

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